UFC 264 Prediction: Dustin Poirior Wins Trilogy Fight vs. Conor McGregor

Conor McGregor returns to the UFC octagon this weekend to take on Dustin Poirier in a trilogy bout. The two first fought at UFC 178 back in September 2014 when McGregor got the better of him on his way to the UFC featherweight championship.

The rematch took place at UFC 257 in January of this year, but it was Poirier who came out victorious after finishing McGregor via TKO in the second round.

The two are set to throw down in a rubber match in the five round main event at this weekend’s UFC 264.

McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Odds

McGregor was a heavy favorite in the first two fights with Poirier, but he’s set as a slight underdog in the trilogy fight. WynnBET has McGregor set as the +100 underdog, and Poirier is set as the -130 (bet $130 to profit $100) favorite.

This will be only the second time that McGregor will be set as the underdog in his career. The only other time came at UFC 229 when McGregor fought Khabib Nurmagomedov for the UFC lightweight championship. McGregor closed as a +162 underdog, and went on to lose via submission in the fourth round.

WynnBET also has a prop bet listed for how long the fight will last. The over/under is set at 1.5 rounds, with the over (-190) favored to the under. The first fight last just 1:46, but the second fight went into the second round. Poirier scored the finish at the 2:32 mark, which would have cashed the over by just two seconds.

McGregor vs. Poirier 3 Prediction: Take Poirier

The blueprint is officially out on how to beat McGregor, and Poirier executed it to near perfection in their fight earlier this year. “The Diamond” came out of the gate a little bit timid, likely trying to forget what happened in their first fight, but found his rhythm in the second round and closed McGregor out.

Leg kicks and wrestling are the path to defeating McGregor, and Poirier utilized the former in the rematch. McGregor wrote on Instagram after the fight:

“The leg attacks were building up on me throughout the course. 18 in total thrown at me, with the final one buckling my leg fully, that was that. The peroneal nerve compromised. Fascinating!”

While many McGregor backers will claim that the Irishman will come into the trilogy prepared for the leg attacks, they may forget that there’s another path to victory for the American and that’s his wrestling.

Poirier landed a takedown with ease in the first round of their rematch fight, and while he decided to return to the leg kicks, that may have opened his eyes to a secondary gameplan that’s available against McGregor.

We’re only half a year out form their rematch fight, and I don’t see how McGregor will adjust and improve enough to take out the version of Poirier that improved leaps and bounds since their first contest in 2014.

Poirier will win once again, and this time it may be an even quicker result.