UFC 264 Prediction: Gilbert Burns to Shine as Underdog In Co-Main Event vs. Stephen Thompson

One of the biggest pay-per-views of the year is set for this Saturday, as Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier square-off in a trilogy fight in the Main Event of UFC 264.

While McGregor and Poirier are getting the bulk of attention, the co-main bout between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson is flying under the radar.

WynnBET has “Wonderboy” Thompson set as the -175 favorite, and Burns is set as the +125 underdog. In my opinion, Burns at +125 is the best underdog on the entire card.

He’s coming off a welterweight title fight loss to Kamaru Usman, but before that fight Burns had been on a six-fight win streak which included wins over the likes of Demian Maia, Gunnar Nelson and former champion Tyron Woodley.

While he wasn’t able to defeat the champion, it shouldn’t be looked at as a detractor heading into this fight as Usman is arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet right now.

Don’t forget, Burns won the first round against the champion on all three judges' scorecards.

This time he’ll be facing a fellow former title challenger in Thompson, who may have a flashy style that can make for the occasional highlight reel knockouts, he can be susceptible to more fundamental mixed martial artists.

Thompson's title fights came against Woodley, who Burns has recently defeated. Thompson fought to a draw with Woodley at UFC 205, and then fought him again in a losing effort at UFC 209.

Many of the tools that Woodley used to defeat “Wonderboy," Burns also possess. The main skill that Thompson is susceptible to is wrestling. He was taken down in both fights against Woodley, and was frozen on his feet knowing the power that the champion possessed.

Burns offers the same wrestling ability, but he has a much more diverse striking attack than Woodley’s one-punch knockout power that always came in the form of a right hook.

Thompson enters the contest having won two straight fights, but the level of competition he faced in Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque is quite a significant step down from Burns, who is in the prime of his career.

If you’re looking for an underdog to back while watching the fights on Saturday night, there’s none who present better value than Gilbert Burns at +125.