UFC 265 Picks: Ciryl Gane Has a Chance to Be France's First UFC Champion

The UFC heads to Houston, Texas for this Saturday’s UFC 265.

The main event will feature a fight for the UFC interim heavyweight title between Derrick Lewis (+285) and Ciryl Gane (-370). The winner will take on the current undisputed champion, Francis Ngannou, at a future date.

Amanada Nunes and Julianna Pena were originally scheduled to fight for the women’s bantamweight championship in the co-main event, but a positive COVID-19 test has caused that fight to be delyed.

Jose Aldo and Pedro Munhoz are set to step into the co-main slot for a three-round bantamweight bout.

Check out our odds article to see the full list of odds for the main card.

All odds listed below are via WynnBET.

UFC 265: Lewis vs Gane Picks and Predictions

Derrick Lewis (+285) vs Ciryl Gane (-370): Gane via Decision +162

Derrick Lewis is one of the most popular fighters on the UFC’s roster, and he’ll be fighting in his hometown of Houston this weekend, but that doesn’t mean you should bet on him to win.

I love Lewis as much as the next guy, and I’ll be happy for him if he wins, but he’s the literal embodiment of a “puncher’s chance” when he takes on the top level of competition. He is one of the hardest punchers on the planet, but that’s truly his only weapon.

In 25 professional wins, 20 of them have come via knockout. There have been plenty of examples, most notably his fight against Alexander Volkov at UFC 229, when he was on his way to losing via decision before landing a bomb on his opponent that won him the fight.

He will find himself in that situation again on Saturday night when he takes on Ciryl Gane, who is one of the most technically sound fighters in the heavyweight division. He’s 9-0 in his MMA career, but is also 13-0 in his professional Muay Thai career. His footwork is sublime, and avoiding Lewis’ right hand shouldn’t be much of an issue for him.

Three of Gane’s nine professional wins have come via decision, including his two latest bouts against Volkov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Given Lewis’ power, I fully expect him to stay out of range of his right hand and piece Lewis up with jabs and kicks. This fight will go to decision, and Gane will get his hand raised based on the judges scorecards. That outcome presents tremendous value at +162.

Jose Aldo (-120) vs Pedro Munhoz (-110): Munhoz to win -110

Many people were of the belief that Jose Also was the greatest fighter in the UFC when he was in his dominant reign in the UFC’s featherweight division. That was until Conor McGregor knocked him out in a flash, taking all of 13 seconds to get the job done.

Since then, Aldo has struggled to string wins together. He’s just 3-6 dating back to the McGregor loss, and 1-2 since moving to the 135-pound weight class. Despite the recent losses, he is coming off a win over Marlon Vera entering this fight, but now he faces one of the most dangerous opponents in the bantamweight division.

Predo Munhoz is coming off an impressive win over Jimmie Rivera, and he’ll look to continue his journey to a title fight with a win over Aldo. 13 of his 19 professional wins have come via finish, and now he’s taking on an aging Aldo that has lost via KO/TKO in four of his last six losses.

While technically the same age, Aldo is well beyond Munhoz in “fight years”. Once your chin starts to go, it’s hard to be the same fighter you were during your prime. I’ll take Munhoz at -110 odds.

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