UFC 268 Best Bets: How to Bet Usman-Covington, Namajunas-Zhang

The UFC card of the year is set for UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York on Saturday, Nov. 5th 2021.

Kamaru Usman will face Colby Covington for the second time, a rematch of their instant classic of their UFC 245 welterweight title fight.

In the co-main, Rose Namajunas and Weili Zhang meet for the strawweight title, a rematch from their April title fight at UFC 261, when Namajunas won by knockout in 78 seconds.

There are star-studded matchups all over the card, and make sure to get our best bets from our duo of UFC bettors, Iain McMillan and Reed Wallach.

All odds listed are via WynnBET.

Main Event: Kamaru Usman (-300) vs. Colby Covington (+240)

I’m a firm believer in betting on the guy who won the first fight when there’s a rematch, but at -300, I’m not willing to eat the juice on Kamaru Usman. Instead, I’m going to look at OVER 3.5 rounds at -130 as my best bet in the main event.

Despite his two most recent finishes, Usman’s style is not one that usually results in a lot of quick finishes. He’s a pressure fighter, who uses his strength to keep guys tied up either on the ground or against the fence. Covington’s style is the exact same, and that’s why the first fight between the two went into the fifth and final round. I expect another long fight in the rematch. These two fighters know each other too well for it to be over quickly.

Pick: Usman/Covington OVER 3.5 Rounds (-130) -- Iain McMillian

Co-Main Event: Rose Namajunas (+100) vs. Weili Zhang (-120)

If you’re going to give me plus-money odds on a fighter who just beat this same opponent in the same calendar year, I will take that bet 100% of the time. Zhang Weili is technically sound, and will beat every other woman in the strawweight division, but Namajunas has improved in each fight in her career and her athleticism is on another level.

The fight probably won’t result in another first round knock out, but Namajunas’ footwork and ability to create angles can cause issues for someone like Weili who relies on a very technical and formulaic way of fighting. Rose at +100 is a steal in the co-main event.

Pick: Rose Namajunas (+100) -- Iain McMillian

This fight is a rematch from last spring's wild knockout that saw "Thug Rose" regain her title. Now Zhang is back for revenge and I see two paths to victory.

I'm not betting a match before the bell rings as I'm expecting Namajunas' winning equity to sit in the first two rounds. After round 2 I will look to bet Zhang if she is in decent shape, even down two rounds on the judges scorecards. I believe she is much more live for a victory then, especially by finish.

So, it's Rose early, Zhang late, but my pre-fight bet will be on the under 4.5 rounds at -110.

Pick: UNDER 4.5 Rounds (-110), bet to -120 -- Reed Wallach

Prop Bet: Justin Gaethje (-215) vs. Michael Chandler (+175)

These two are not planning on staying in the octagon very much. Both have a ton of power and are known finishers.

While I lean Gaethje, Chandler is likely going to come forward first and can easily catch a chinny Gaethje, this line is too wide for me to bet given that I see it ending so quickly and the variance being so high.

This line of +158 implies that there about a 38% chance that hits, I think it's closer to 55%. These two are going to come out with a crazy pace and look to finish this within the first 90 seconds.

Pick: Fight Ends in Round 1 (+158) -- Reed Wallach

These two fighters are known for their violence, but don’t think that automatically means we’re going to see a quick finish. Both guys are as tough as they come, and have survived deep into fights several times in their respective careers.

It’s a common theme in MMA and the UFC, that when two guys who are known for their power enter the octagon, we expect it to be over before we can blink. More often than not, that’s not the case. Remember Derrick Lewis vs. Francis Ngannou?

Sometimes in these situations, both fighters respect each other’s power so much that they’re hesitant to get in the pocket. I think we’re safe in betting on this fight making it past the first 7.5 minutes.

Pick: OVER 1.5 Rounds (-115) -- Iain McMillian

Underdog Bet: Frankie Edgar (+130) vs. Marlon Vera

In what could be the last fight of an illustrious career, I like Frankie Edgar to grab a win against Marlon Vera. Edgar, a NJ native, can win in front of the Tri-State and possibly ride off into the sunset.

It's worth nothing that Edgar has taken a good bit of time off after a scary knockout against Corey Sandhagen last year, but he should have no issue handing Vera, who he holds a pronounced grappling edge against.

Edgar averages more than two takedowns per 15 minutes and should be able to keep Vera on the mat, who has a middling 69% takedown defense. I don't see much advantage for Vera in the stand up and think Edgar can hold his own, and eventually land takedowns that win rounds.

Styles make fights, and I like Edgar at a + money price.

Pick: Frankie Edgar (+130) -- Reed Wallach

Chris Curtis (+240) vs Phil Hawes (-310)

One of my favorite spots to bet on an underdog is when a UFC newcomer takes on an established fighter. Chris Curtis will be making his debut with the promotion, but make no mistake about it, he’s an extremely experienced fighter. He’s fought 34 times as a professional, while his opponents has only fought 13 times despite having three UFC fights under his belt.

That experience is invaluable, and Curtis will enter the bout on a fight five win streak with four of them coming via TKO. Hawes can fight reckless at times, so if Curtis is patient, he could catch him and pull off the upset victory.

Pick: Chris Curtis +240 -- Iain McMillian