UFC 269 Best Bets: How to Bet Each Title Fight and More

UFC 269 is live Saturday, December 11 from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, the final pay-per-view for the promotion of 2021. The event is headlined by a pair of title fights, featuring Charles Oliveira making his first lightweight title defense against Dustin Poirier and Amanda Nunes defending her bantamweight title against Julianna Pena.

This is a 14 fight card that is full of betting value, so let's get to it.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Lightweight Championship: Charles Oliveira (+120) vs. Dustin Poirier (-140)

Full fight preview can be found here, but I believe we are getting a great price on the champion as Poirier is being overvalued after beating Conor McGregor twice this past calendar year.

Overall, Oliveira has a grappling advantage and a ton of finishing equity there. While the champ may not be Khabib Nurmagomedov, who made Poirier tap out, he will be the next most advanced submission artists and I believe we can see that type of finish here when Poirier engages with Oliveria early.

I'm on Oliveira any + money price, and sprinkling on him to win by submission as well.

Pick: Oliveira +120, Oliveira Submission +300

Bantamweight Championship: Amanda Nunes (-850) vs. Julianna Pena (+590)

Full fight preview is here, but I see Nunes hunting for an early finish given her cardio concerns in the past and supreme striking advantage.

Pena is certainly not interested in getting into a standup fight with Nunes and may look to drag this fight out. However, in terms of betting value I see Nunes by submission as a solid bet considering Pena has shaky takedown defense.

Also, it's worth noting that if this hits the championship rounds (four and five), Pena is a solid live betting value against a potentially gassed Nunes.

PICK: Nunes by Submission +400, Pena Live after Round 3

Prelim Bet: Josh Emmett (-160) vs. Dan Ige (+140)

Emmett is coming off a torn ACL that has sidelined him for more than a year, but I see him as the clear side against Dan Ige.

While the injury concerns may be pushing this price down, I'm fading the steam and backing Emmett, who has a clear striking advantage both by power and volume. Emmett throws about half a significant strike more per minute and also has a 63% significant strike defense per UFCStats.com.

I just don't see an edge for Ige in this fight to bet him and I believe in hindsight we will look back and believe Emmett was incredibly undervalued.

PICK: Emmett -160

Underdog Bet: Jordan Wright (+265) vs. Bruno Silva (-325)

In a battle of two knockout seeking middleweights, I'm always inclined to side with the dog. We know both guys can finish one another with one punch, so why not get a near 3-1 payout on it?

That's what I'm looking for here with Wright, who is also the superior grappler if they ever push this to the cage.

Silva throws more than five significant strikes per minute, per UFCStats.com and Wright throws more than seven. Further, Wright has a three inch reach advantage and two inch height advantage which can prove pivotal if he can land first.

I'm not expecting a long fight here and will take a shot on Wright to finish this in the first round too when that market becomes available at WynnBET.

PICK: Wright +265, Wright R1