UFC 270 Preview & Best Bets

Jun 29, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Francis Ngannou (red gloves) reacts after beating Junior Dos
Jun 29, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Francis Ngannou (red gloves) reacts after beating Junior Dos / David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

The UFC kicks off their 202 pay-per-view calendar with UFC 270 that is headlined by two championship fights between Francis Ngannou and Ciryl Gane for the Heavyweight championship and Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo for the flyweight belt.

Overall, there are 11 fights on this card that have betting value all across it. If you want to see a preview for a ton of the fights, check out myself and Iain McMillian break down our favorite bets on the BetSided Youtube page below!

With that being said here are my two plays on the pair of title fights on Saturday as one underdog I have my eye on.

All odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Heavyweight Championship: Francis Ngannou (+125) vs. Ciryl Gane (-145)

I advocated for a bet on Ngannou on Thursday in the fight preview here, but in short I believe that Gane is going to struggle being the smaller man in the cage for the first time in his career.

Ngannou has a two inch reach advantage on the interim champion and Gane is not going to be able to showcase his fantastic defensive technique and grappling prowess in this bout. 'Bon Gamin' is going to have to engage Ngannou at times and it is there that 'The Predator' can connect and finish this fight.

While Gane secured the interim belt more recently, this line is an overreaction to the recent result. Ngannou has the more impressive resume and will happily bet him as an underdog. Gane's path to victory lies in standing on the outside and working Ngannou down over a majority of the five rounds.

At a reach disadvantage, he won't be able to keep a lid on the explosive fighter and Ngannou will remind everyone that he is the scariest fighter in the sport.

One note I do have that may be driving this price is that the champion has had a lengthy and ugly negotiation with the UFC about his contract and he has flirted with leaving the sport entirely for boxing. If his foot is already out the door, he can be in trouble here.

Flyweight Championship: Deiveson Figueiredo (+155) vs. Brandon Moreno (-185)

This is the third fight between the two with Moreno winning the most recent one after Figueiredo had a terrible weight cut ahead of the fight. He has always struggled with making 125 pounds, but he looked fantastic on the scale Friday afternoon ahead of this bout.

"Deus da Guerra" would have defended his title in the first bout between the two, but it ended in a draw after he caught Moreno below the belt, so his record is 0-1-1 in this series.

However, with a clean weight cut, I believe we see an all time performance from the former champion similar to the first fight that was a clear victory. He is the much more dangerous fighter and I believe he showcases his talent after a better weight cut. This line should be closer to a pick and now I'm ready to fire at +155.

PICK: Figueiredo +155

Underdog Bet: Andre Fialho (+225) vs. Michel Pereira (-285)

There is a ton of variance in this fight considering both are knock out artists. I'm going to side with Fialho that is coming in on short notice to land a massive blow that foils Pereira game plan, whether by finish or hurts him enough that he falls behind on the scorecards.

"Demolidor" throws a ton of kicks and has unorthodox movement, but Fialho is going to hunt for action and use his massive punches to create violence. In 14 of his MMA wins, 11 are by knockout. We also have seen Pereira struggle with cardio late in fights and survive in the later rounds to grab decision victories.

I believe this price is too wide for a knockout artist like Fialho can match Pereira's size at welterweight. I'll take a stab at the big payout.

PICK: Fialho +225