UFC 271 Prediction and Odds: Israel Adesanya Defends Middleweight Belt vs. Robert Whittaker
By Reed Wallach
UFC 271 is here! We have a stacked card filled with heavy hitters and talented grapplers that should make for an eventful evening.
The main event is the rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker for the middleweight title. Adesanya has not lost in this weight class professionally while Whittaker has rattled off three straight wins since being finished in the second round by 'The Last Stylebender.'
There is a potential No. 1 contender bout for this very title as well on the card between Jared Cannonier and Derek Brunson as well as fan favorites Derrick Less and Tai Tuivasa going at it.
With that in mind, let's rattle off a few best bets for Saturday night's card!
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
Make sure to check out the debut of Jab, Cross, Hooke: A FanSided MMA Show with Jeff Molina previewing the UFC 271 card!
Main Event: Israel Adesanaya (-290) vs. Robert Whittaker (+230)
I do believe that the line is fair with the champ being lined as such considerable chalk. In the first fight, 'Bobby Knuckles' waded in and challenged Adesanaya, but that resulted in a ton of damage and eventually a knockout.
The path for Whittaker to win this fight is by landing takedowns, but that's not a massive part of the Aussie's game. He averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and is giving up seven inches in reach to the champion. Adesanya has never been challenged on the ground by middleweights and I don't expect Whittaker to find much success either.
Overall, I see a more calculated approach from Whittaker that will try and drag this fight out into the later rounds, but Adesanya's cardio and length is too much to overcome. Given his success, Adesanya is typically fighting five round bouts and is averaging nearly 17 minutes per fight. He is a unique size for the middleweight division and I expect he works his jab early and often en route to another decision victory.
PICK: Adesanya ML as a parlay piece, LEAN: Adesanya by Decision (+170)
Jared Cannonier (-165) vs. Derek Brunson (+140)
Brunson has won his last five fights, four of which came as an underdog and the other in a coin flip. The 38 year old is now on the precipice of another title shot but will have a stiff test against the former light heavyweight Cannonier.
I've been riding Blonde Brunson for a while now and will be doing so again here. He has the path to victory by getting this fight to the ground and slowing Cannonier's striking down. Brunson is averaging more than three takedowns per 15 minutes and his opponent has been suspect in the grappling department, posting a 62% takedown defense, per UFCStats.com.
While Brunson has been chinny in the past, he's been knocked out in five of his seven losses, I believe that his pressure fighting can tire out Cannonier, who has seen his striking depreciate over the course of a fight. There is win equity in 'The Killa Gorilla' to finish this fight early, but I believe Brunson can land takedowns and grind this fight out.
PICK: Brunson +140
Renato Moicano (-165) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+140)
I believe Hernandez is the better fighter here and believe he should be favored, not a considerable underdog. He is the far superior striker, but has been streaky. He has traded wins and losses over his last five, but his two most recent wins are by first round finish.
Meanwhile, his opponent, Moicano has been prone to being finished, losing three of his four bouts by KO. Moicano has the advantage on the ground and is live to finish this by submission, but I believe that Hernandez can overwhelm his foe in the stand up and keep this at range and strike his way to a victory.
PICK: Hernandez +140
Best Bets for UFC 271
- Sergey Morozov/Ronnie Lawrence ML Parlay (+100)
- Jakob Malkoun (-105)
- Maxim Grishin (-170)
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!