UFC 272 Prediction and Odds: Best Bets for Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Colby Covington tries to reassert himself as a welterweight
Nov 6, 2021; New York, NY, USA; Colby Covington tries to reassert himself as a welterweight / Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

We have arrived at UFC 272 with two former friends and now rivals settling their feud in the cage.

Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal are each coming off of losses to Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, but now will turn their attention to one another as they look to settle their differences.

Both men have accomplished a ton in their UFC careers and this one feels like it is centered on pride more than anything else.

We will have a best bet for that one as well as several littered across the jam packed card. Here are my best bets, several of which were discussed on Jab, Cross, Hook earlier this week. Check that out below, but let's get to the plays:

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

UFC Best Bets in 2022: 10-7 (+6.62 Units)

Main Event: Colby Covington (-345) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+270)

While Masvidal provides a ton of star power and the element of surprise to his fights, he is no match for Covington, who is the clear second best Welterweight in the world.

Masvidal was a middling ranked fighter until his highlight reel knockout of Ben Askren several years back, propelling him to stardom. However, when faced with legitimate competition like Usman he was destroyed. Covington is an outstanding wrestler with an incredible gas tank. We saw him go toe-to-toe with Usman while Masvidal never stood a chance.

With that being said, this is a steep price to pay for someone with Masvidal's power.

The most likely path to victory is Covington by decision, which is indicated in the odds, listed at -110, that Covington wins on the cards. I agree with the fact that that's the most likely path to victory, but I'm instead going to key in on the former interim champ in moneyline parlays that produce a better price. I will get to several formidable candidates to partner with Covington, who is the clear side here.

PICK: Covington in ML Parlays, LEAN: Covington by Decision up to -125

Co-Main Event: Rafael Dos Anjos (-180) vs. Renato Moicano (+150)

Dos Anjos has had plenty of time off, inactive since the end of 2020, but he has been trying to get back in the octagon to no avail. HIs original opponent Rafael Fiziev has had to cancel twice in the past month due to several issues and now gets Moicano who fought last month against Alexander Hernandez.

Moicano finished the fight in the second round, but now has a difficult turnaround inside of a week to prepare for one of the most skilled fighters in the world. Moicano will be traveling from Brazil to Las Vegas this week and cutting weight for this catchweight bout. There's simply too many factors going against the short notice challenger.

Dos Anjos is a championship level talent despite his elder age (37), and should be able to take care of business as the fight wares on.

I never like laying the juice, but this line is short against RDA, who will be calculated in his approach, knowing that Moicano doesn't have the gas tank to take this fight into the later rounds.

PICK: Dos Anjos -180, play to -225

Parlay: Kevin Holland (-355)/Mariya Agapova (-195)

My two favorite favorites on the card (and good candidates to pair with Covington) make a near even money payout.

Holland is coming down from Middleweight to face Alex Oliveira, who is on his way out of the UFC.

While 'Cowboy' may have a few moments of excellence as he tries to finish Holland, 'Trailblazer' should be able to take care of the aging veteran in short order. Oliveira is on a three fight skid and this is a confidence building fight for Holland, who had his ascent stopped quickly against elite middleweights like Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori.

The weight class change will help Holland and will lead to an easy finish.

The other fight may be closer, but I love Agapova in this spot. After an embarrassing defeat against Shana Dobson as a massive favorite in which she was finished mostly in part to being exhausted after a reckless first round, she seem more calculated in her submission victory over Sabrina Mazo last October.

Now she gets a heated rival in Maroz, who hasn't fought since 2020 and will be in trouble on the feet but also against Agapova's ground game. There also is a score to settle for Agapova, as we detailed on Jab, Cross, Hook this week (check in around 26 minutes):

I'm riding the pissed off fighter to exact some revenge.

PICK: Holland/Agapova -106

Underdog: Edson Barboza (+135) vs. Bryce Mitchell (160)

Barboza is a former Lightweight who is now fighting at Featherweight and is a play on fighter for me as an underdog. Sure, he is coming off a loss to Giga Chikadze but the veteran Barboza is massive for the division and should give Mitchell some trouble.

Mitchell is a grapple minded fighter, averaging north of three takedowns per 15 minutes, but will struggle to close the distance against Barboza, who boasts a five inch reach advantage. If he is able to stuff several takedowns, 'Junior' should touch him up at range, Barboza lands nearly two more significant strikes per minute.

Sure, Mitchell can secure takedowns and make this look easy, but I'm not so sure, Babroza has been in 32 professional fights and is more than capable of fending off the smaller Mitchell's primary point of attack. I think Barboza gets this done in a game that is underrating him after a loss to a noted striker Chikadze. This matchup is better for the veteran.

PICK: Babroza +135, play to +120

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!