UFC 274 Prediction and Odds: Best Bets for Gaethje vs. Oliveira, Ferguson vs. Chandler

One of the most stacked UFC cards of 2022 goes down on Saturday at Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.

UFC 274 is LIVE Saturday night with Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira putting his 10 fight winning streak on the line in a title bout against Justin Gaethje. However, there is a ton of controversy around the bout as Oliveira had to vacate his title on Friday after failing to make weight. The fight will go on but Oliveira is ineligible to win the belt. Only Gaethje can.

Prior to that, Rose Namajunas defends her Strawweight strap against Carla Esparza. The two title fights headline a loaded 15 fight card that also features fan favorite Tony Ferguson facing off against Michael Chandler.

Let's hope I can get back on track after a bad string of losses. Yuck. Onward and upward, here's how I'm betting UFC 274.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

UFC Record: 16-26 (-12.45 Units)

Lightweight Championship: Charles Oliveira (-175) vs. Justin Gaethje (+145)

So this fight took a turn. Oliveira was unable to make weight but I'm going to stick to my guns with my original play on the under. This has to be a deflating experience for the former champ but here as my original handicap, I still expect him to put forth a big effort in the octagon, but he could be weaker which plays into my play:

This is going to be an entertaining battle that I expect to be short lived. Oliveira is constantly in firefights, both of his title bouts have not completed the third round, finishing both Chandler R2 and Poirier in the early third. I don't see much different in this one as Oliveira can challenge Gaethje on the ground, but also in the stand up.

Oliveira is constantly coming forward and is more than comparable of letting his hands fly and connecting, but that is Gaethje's preferred method of madness.

While he has been finished by KO, Gaethje's win equity is built into an early finish. Given the fact that Chandler nearly knocked out 'do Bronx' in R1 of their title bout, I believe there's cause for optimism that the Arizona native can find a finish there.

Neither man is looking to be in the cage for too long. The two have combined to go the distance in 6 of 63 professional fights. A strong case can be made for either side so I'll just root for violence and take the under 2.5

PICK: Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)

Michael Chandler (-365) vs. Tony Ferguson (+280)

Ferguson is a fan favroite in the UFC, but the losses are starting to pile up. While he has lost to some of the top contenders at Lightweight (Gaethje, Oliveria and Beneil Dariush) the 38-year-old is starting to look every bit of it.

He now faces an explosive fighter in Michael Chandler, who burst onto the UFC scene with a first round knockout of Dan Hooker, but has faltered when facing some of the best in the world at this weight class, dropping a title fight to Oliveira last summer and more recently to Gaethje in one of the fights of the year.

Chandler has struggled outside of the first round as there is some concern over his cardio, but his ability to grapple (an All-American wrestler) can weather any offense Ferguson throws at him.

This line accurately shows the difference between the two fighters. Ferguson has looked like a shell of himself while Chandler was a few more devastating strikes away from knocking out the now champion Oliveira in the first round. I won't lay this price on Chandler, but I see him as the likely winner.

I believe most of Chandler's finishing upside comes in the first round, but Ferguson should be able to hold up through 15 minutes. I expect by the time this fight is over 'El Cucuy' will look as beaten as he has in recent losses but I expect this fight to go to the cards after Chandler gasses out hunting a finish and the fight becomes sloppy by the third round.

Ferguson has been finished once since 2009, which came against Gaethje when he dealt one of the most vicious beatdowns of all time. Ferguson stayed standing for a majority of the fight but the referee called it in the fifth round. With only 3 rounds to work and less striking prowess, I expect Chandler to put together a dominant win by decision.

PICK: Chandler by Decision (+260)

Joe Lauzon (+150) vs. Donald Cerrone (-180)

These are two men on their way out of the UFC. Cerrone is 0-4-1 in his last five fights and could be on the edge of retirement. He will welcome Lauzon back to the octagon who hasn't fought since 2019.

Sure there can be some concern after such a long lay off for Lauzon, but I trust the veteran who has won via submission in 17 of his 28 victories. Cerrone has looked outclassed on the feet and I believe Lauzon's going to bring the pace that will overwhelm 'Cowboy.'

I can't justify making Cerrone this much of a favorite against many fighters, and I see a lot of upside in backing 'J-Lau' to win early. I'm going to be on his moneyline in what I project to be about a pick 'em, and I'll sprinkle on Lauzon to win in R1 in the case that Cerrone withers under the early pressure.

PICK: Lauzon (+150), 0.5 Units Lauzon R1 (+720)

UFC 274 Best Bets

• Journey Newsom (+115)
• Melissa Gatto (+125)
• Macy Chiasson (+180)
• Randy Brown (-105)