UFC 299: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos Prediction, Pick and Odds

History suggests fading the former champion on the UFC 299 prelims

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev v Moises Weigh-in
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As one of the many high-level fights on the stacked card that is UFC 299, Mateusz Gamrot will welcome Rafael dos Anjos back to the lightweight division as the antepenultimate fight of the prelims.

Now 23-2 in his career after picking up a win over Rafael Fiziev six months before UFC 299, Gamrot will be a heavy favorite as the no. 6 ranked lightweight in the promotion. Six years younger than dos Anjos, Gamrot will essentially fight in his backyard as a part-time resident of Florida as a member of American Top Team.

Dos Anjos (32-15) moves back to lightweight after a two-fight stint at welterweight, going 1-1 against Bryan Barberena and Vicente Luque. Since losing the lightweight belt in 2016, the 39-year-old has bounced back and forth between weight classes, last competing at lightweight in a 2022 main event loss to Fiziev.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos odds and round total

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael dos Anjos best bet

The whole world will essentially be on Gamrot in this matchup and as unfortunate as it is for a future Hall of Famer like dos Anjos, this is almost a tune-up fight for the Pole. Gamrot and dos Anjos are essentially the same fighter six years and 21 fights apart and in matchups like these, the younger fighter tends to win.

Dos Anjos has enjoyed an incredibly successful career to date but has not beaten a legitimate top-10 lightweight such as Gamrot since his title defense over Donald Cerrone in 2015. Dos Anjos does have a win over Paul Felder in 2020 but the fight was the final of Felder's career taken on five day's notice in one of the most compromised positions a fighter can exist in.

Since losing the belt in 2015, dos Anjos is 0-3 at lightweight against opponents fighting on a full camp.

Gamrot has not had a smooth run in the top 10 at lightweight but in his career, he has primarily struggled with superior strikers. Dos Anjos at one point could have been that type of opponent but has relied heavily on his wrestling as he nears the end of his career. Dos Anjos has just one knockdown since 2014 against Renato Moicano who stepped in as another short-notice replacement opponent.

For as much of a physical and tactical advantage, Gamrot will have, dos Anjos has only been finished four times out of 15 losses (26 percent) in his career, all knockouts from power punchers and one loss by injury. Gamrot has not been that type of fighter in his career with 10 of 23 wins (43 percent) by decision.


Prediction and best bet: Mateusz Gamrot by decision (-155)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.