UFC 300: Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller Prediction, Pick and Odds

In one of the top headlines of UFC 300 fight week, 40-year-old Jim Miller will attempt to complete the trifecta of picking up a win on UFC 100, 200 and 300 against Bobby Green on April 13.

Despite being the apparent fan favorite of the card, Miller (37-17, 26-16 in UFC) is a slight underdog. Miller enters the fight looking to extend his current win streak to three after picking up wins over Jesse Butler and Gabriel Benitez.

Since losing to Joe Solecki in 2021, Miller has now won five of his last six fights entering UFC 300.

Green (31-15-1, 12-10-1 in UFC) saw his own career resurgence in 2023 with signature wins over Tony Ferguson and Grant Dawson, who was then ranked at no. 10 in the lightweight division. However, Green is coming off a knockout loss to Jalin Turner just four months ahead of UFC 300 in one of the worst referee stoppages in MMA history.

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Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller odds and round total

Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller best bet

Once the door locks behind Green and Miller on Saturday night, it will feel as if the entire arena will be rooting for Miller to win and complete his career arc. But once the rose-colored glasses come off, this matchup is one that Green should dominate.

On the current run he is on, Miller has looked incredible, finishing each of his last nine wins. But in his current form since 2021, Miller's best win is Gabriel Benitez who is a decent fighter but not nearly the level of Green. Two of his other wins came over debuting fighters with one being a featherweight who stepped up on short notice and the other no longer in the UFC.

In the same time frame, Green has continued to fight at the top of the lightweight division and has picked up wins over Grant Dawson, Tony Ferguson, Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. An argument can be made that Green's worst win in that span, Ferguson, is still better than Miller's best win.

Obviously, the elephant in the room is Green's mental and physical health after the brutal beatdown he took at the hands of Jalin Turner just four months ago. Green spoke on the incident in his media day interview and while appearing to not be too concerned, admitted he felt that his view of the sport has not been slightly altered after taking several unnecessary shots to his unconscious head.

But Miller, despite picking up three knockouts since 2021, has not knocked out any opponent near the level of Green. In his 19-year career, Miller has just seven total knockouts across 55 fights. Green has only been knocked out five times, all by fighters with vastly superior striking skills than the 40-year-old Miller.

The two lightweights are similar in age but at nearly opposite ends of their respective careers. Since 2020, Green is 3-0 against fighters who are older than him and has only lost to fighters currently ranked. This is still too large of a step up for Miller.

At this point in his career, Miller's confidence is sky-high and if there is any fighter in the rankings he can beat, it is likely Green. But Green is an incredibly difficult fighter to figure out who routinely frustrates opponents with a largely underrated grappling game. Miller's best path to victory will be on the ground but Green has not been submitted since 2009.

Prediction and best bet: Bobby Green by decision (+145)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.