UFC 300: Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt Prediction, Pick and Odds

UFC 300 is finally here and we are getting in on the action early with former champions Deiveson Figueiredo and Cody Garbrandt getting the card started in the first fight of the night.

Figueiredo (22-3-1, 11-3-1 in UFC) will be the favorite after successfully debuting as a bantamweight at UFC Austin with a decision win over Rob Font. Before moving up to the 135-pound division, Figueiredo fought Brandon Moreno four times for the flyweight title from 2020-2023 in one of the most iconic rivalries in UFC history.

While coming off two consecutive wins, Garbrandt (14-5, 9-5 in UFC) has lost all of the momentum he once had as the UFC bantamweight champion in 2016. After going 1-5 since becoming the champion, Garbrandt took a considerable step down in competition but returns to the fire on April 13 against Figueiredo, the no. 8 ranked contender.

As the line nears closing, Figueiredo appears to be one of the bigger favorites of UFC 300.

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt odds and round total

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt best bet

Few is guaranteed when both of these fighters compete but violence is almost always the common denominator. In 15 UFC fights for Figueiredo, nine have not gone the distance (60 percent) while Garbrandt has seen a fight end early in 10 of his 14 UFC appearances. (71 percent).

In both of their careers, finishes have been at the forefront of each of their minds with Figueiredo racking up 17 finishes and Garbrandt winning picking up 11 knockouts. Figueiredo has a near-even split of knockouts and submissions while Garbrandt has never won or lost a fight by submission in 19 career outings.

As the large favorite, Figueiredo is expected to find a finish in this fight and much of the public money is being placed on his knockout prop. In his 15 UFC fights, Figueiredo has recorded an impressive 11 knockdowns while Garbrandt has been knocked down seven times since 2017.

A knockdown is almost unanimously expected from Figueiredo, particularly with Garbrandt publicly ridiculed for his lack of durability by fans.

For all of his recent struggles, Garbrandt still showed in his last fight that he still has the offensive striking skills to finish fights. However, he also showed his glaring lack of defense still exists, one that Brian Kelleher was just unable to exploit. Garbrandt loves to brawl — despite his lack of success in doing so — and if he wins, it will be by knockout.

Figueiredo by knockout will be the common bet but when Garbrandt gets hurt, he has almost always panic-shot a takedown and in similar situations, Figueiredo loves to hunt for a guillotine submission. Garbrandt has never been submitted in his career but the same was said for Joseph Benavidez before Figueiredo choked him unconscious.

Prediction: Figueiredo by submission in round two.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-140)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.