UFC 300: Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic Prediction, Pick and Odds

As one of the 12 current or former UFC champions on the April 13 fight card, Jiri Prochazka returns to fight in a three-round affair for the first time since his promotional debut against Aleksandar Rakic in the featured prelim of UFC 300.

Prochazka (29-4-1, 3-1 in UFC) last competed on UFC 295, losing to Alex Pereira in his return from shoulder surgery after previously serving as the light heavyweight champion. In his three previous UFC appearances, Prochazka submitted Glover Teixeira to win the belt at UFC 275 and knocked out both Volkan Oezdemir and Dominick Reyes. Before signing with the promotion in 2020, Prochazka held the 205-pound belt in RIZIN.

Rakic (14-3, 6-2 in UFC) has not fought in nearly two full years after tearing his ACL against Jan Blachowicz in the main event of UFC Vegas 54. Rakic previously picked up signature wins over Thiago Santos, Anthony Smith, and Jimi Manuwa to label himself as a budding light heavyweight contender.

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Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic odds and round total

Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic best bet

As is the case with the main event, the primary question in this fight will be the condition of Rakic in his return from injury. Fighters typically tend to bounce back from torn ACL injuries fairly well but Rakic has also taken 23 months away from competition in the rehabilitation process.

Given the time off and history of fighters who dealt with ACL tears, Rakic should be able to return to complete form but still has a difficult style matchup to deal with in Prochazka. It has never been a secret that Rakic's game plan revolves around his wrestling as in similar matchups against high-level kickboxers in the UFC, the Austrian has averaged over five minutes of control time.

But where Prochazka has struggled in his career has not been in grappling situations. In his UFC career, Prochazka has been taken down a total of six times but has reversed four of them while never being controlled for more than two minutes at once. Through a total of 19 takedowns attempted on him, Prochazka has defended 68 percent.

Though he has only lost four times in his career, the Czech samurai has faced adversity nearly every time he steps into a cage. Due to his style focusing on his offensive striking, Prochazka is prone to getting hit, owning just a 40 percent striking defense in the Octagon. But while Rakic has nine career knockouts, he has not recorded one since 2019.

When Prochazka steps into the cage he tends to draw the brawl out of most fighters and since losing to Alex Pereira five months ago, he has never been more adamant about returning to form. Prochazka appeared genuinely bothered by Rakic's comments questioning his dedication to the Bushido virtues and has never lost two in a row in his career.

Of his 29 career wins, Prochazka has just one win by decision from back in 2016.

Prediction: Prochazka by knockout in round two

Best bet: Jiri Prochazka by KO/TKO or submission (+150)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.