UFC 300: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway Prediction, Pick and Odds

Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway may not be the main event of UFC 300 but are undeniably competing in the most intriguing matchup of the fight card. As two of the most entertaining fighters on the UFC roster, Gaethje will be defending his BMF title against Holloway as a de facto lightweight title eliminator.

Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 in UFC) last beat Dustin Poirier to win the BMF title at UFC 291. Gaethje enters the fight on a two-fight win streak, previously taking a majority decision over Rafael Fiziev after losing to Charles Oliveira at UFC 274.

Holloway (25-7, 21-7 in UFC) returns to lightweight for the first time since facing Poirier in 2019. Since losing the featherweight title, Holloway has twice lost to Alexander Volkanovski in an attempt to regain the belt but enters April 13 off consecutive wins over Chan Sung Jung and Arnold Allen.

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Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway odds and round total

Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway best bet

It is a rare sight to see a fight involving Gaethje not heavily indicating an early finish but the oddsmakers are wisely favoring this matchup to go into the later rounds.

The two fighters almost tell two opposing stories with Gaethje almost exclusively seeing his fights end inside the distance — win or lose — and Holloway tending to go into the championship rounds. Through 29 professional fights, Gaethje has gone to a decision just four times but Holloway has gone to the scorecards 18 times in 32 career bouts.

Since his interim title fight with Anthony Pettis in 2016, Holloway has exclusively fought in five-round fights and gone to a decision in 62 percent of them. Holloway last knocked out Chan Sung Jung in his retirement fight but before that outing had gone to a five-round decision in eight straight.

While coming off a knockout win, Gaethje has clearly taken a more measured approach to his fight game in recent years. After going to a decision just twice in his first 17 fights, Gaethje has fought for the fight's entirety twice in his last four outings.

The key to this fight reaching the latter rounds will be Holloway's infamous durability. The Hawaiian has arguably the best chin in combat sports history, absorbing the most significant strikes in UFC history but never being knocked down or knocked out. Holloway has only been finished once, a submission loss to Dustin Poirier in his UFC debut in 2012.

Now moving up to the 155-pound division, Holloway will only benefit from increased durability from the reduced weight cut. Keep in mind that while Gaethje is a chaos machine, he has gone into round five once before against Tony Ferguson, the most durable fighter he has faced to date.

As of Friday morning, the odds for the fight to go into round five sits at +100 on DraftKings.

Prediction: Holloway by decision

Best bet: Fight to start round five (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.