UFC 300: Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan Prediction, Pick and Odds

The first all-Chinese UFC title fight will be recorded in the co-main event of UFC 300 as strawweight champion Zhang Weili will defend her title against Yan Xiaonan.

Weili (24-3, 8-2 in UFC) has beaten every opponent in the Octagon she has faced who was not named Rose Namajunas. After becoming a two-time champion by submitting Carla Esparza in 2022, Weili defended her belt against Amanda Lemos at UFC 292.

Xiaonan (17-3, 8-2 in UFC) debuted in the UFC before Weili but will be competing in her first title fight since signing with the promotion in 2017. The 34-year-old comes into the matchup on a two-fight win streak including a knockout of Jessica Andrade at UFC 288, the biggest performance of her career.

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Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan odds and round total

Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan best bet

Weili was unable to get a finish in her last title fight but put on as dominant of a title defense as possible without getting a knockout or submission. Now, in the biggest spot of her career, expect the strawweight queen to look for a statement in a favorable matchup.

Xiaonan has done everything she needed to do to earn the historic title fight but is as one-dimensional as a high-level fighter can be. Xiaonan is a superb boxer but a subpar grappler and though not a complete fish out of water on the ground, she has not seemed to understand how to implement grappling in her MMA game.

In each of her UFC wins, Xiaonan used her length and counterstriking to her advantage but gave up significant control time on the ground in every moment she struggled. Xiaonan has defended 70 percent of takedowns attempted on her in the Octagon but has been put down 10 times while ceding over nine minutes of control time twice.

Most notably, Xiaonan was dominated and brutalized by Carla Esparza in 2021, giving up three takedowns and viciously finished by ground-and-pound from the crucifix position. Weili can certainly strike with her and win on the feet but as a high-IQ fighter will certainly look for her takedowns and exploit the path of least resistence.

In her last fight against Amanda Lemos, Weili racked up 16 minutes of control time with six takedowns, nearly finishing the Brazilian on multiple occasions. Weili is not the most technical wrestler but is head and shoulders the most physical strawweight on the planet and has a size and strength advantage over nearly every fighter at 115 pounds.

With three finish wins in her last five fights and a significant advantage on the ground, expect an "and new" on Saturday night in another dominant title defense.

Prediction: Weili by TKO in round three

Best bet: Zhang Weili by KO/TKO or submission (-125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.