UFC 301: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Prediction, Pick and Odds

As the following act to UFC 300, the promotion will travel to Brazil for UFC 301, headlined by flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja defending his belt against no. 10 ranked contender Steve Erceg.

Pantoja (27-5, 11-3 in UFC) became the champion in 2023, taking the belt off of Brandon Moreno at UFC 290 before defending the title five months later against Brandon Royval. Since losing to Askar Askarov in 2020, Pantoja has gone on a five-fight win streak leading into his second title defense in his hometown.

Erceg (12-1, 3-0 in UFC) burst onto the scene just one month before Pantoja won the belt in 2023. Erceg stepped in on short notice to upset David Dvorak at UFC 289, immediately placing him in the flyweight rankings. Now, in just his fourth UFC fight, Erceg finds himself in a title fight after knocking out Matt Schnell at UFC Vegas 87.

Due to Erceg's status as a relatively unknown fighter and Pantoja's recent dominance, the UFC has been marketing this fight as an "Apollo Creed vs. Rocky Balboa" scenario. Pantoja, of course, profiles as Creed, the dominant champion looking to give a no-name fighter a chance to win the belt.

The odds, however, are not as wide as some may have initially thought, particularly with Erceg's lack of proven talent. Pantoja is still the 2-1 favorite but money has been coming in on the young contender during fight week.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg odds and round total

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg best bet

Erceg is not even a year into his UFC career but this fight is still not a pushover for Pantoja. Erceg will have the physical advantages and appears to be the better striker on paper and there is always the letdown factor with a champion facing an unintimidating challenger, similar to what we saw with Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland.

But despite the heartwarming story it would make to see Erceg become a champion, all of the factors in the fight favor the champion. Pantoja, as evidenced in his last fight with Brandon Royval, is adept at making in-fight adjustments to exploit his opponent's weakness while also showcasing why he may be the greatest flyweight grappler of all time.

With his knockout of Matt Schnell in March the UFC is promoting Erceg as a knockout artist but 50 percent of his career wins have been by submission. His last win was only the second knockout of his career. Erceg holds power and has crisp boxing, but Schnell has been finished three times in his last four fights while being knocked down four times in that span.

Through 32 professional fights Pantoja has also never been finished, meaning Erceg would likely have to win a five-round decision to become the new champion, a task both Royval and Brandon Moreno have failed to do. Pantoja is simply one of the most skilled flyweights on the planet training with the best team in MMA.

Pantoja is a certainly finisher but has also won nine fights by decision, including his last two. Given that Erceg has also never been finished in his career and is an accomplished grappler, we will likely see the championship rounds in the main event.

Consider Pantoja by decision (+250) but the same game parlay option combining Pantoja money line and the Over 1.5-round mark is by far the best value in the market. Odds are available with most books but ESPN Bet has the best price as of Friday morning.

Prediction: Pantoja by decision

Best bet: Alexandre Pantoja and Over 1.5 rounds (-150)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.