UFC 301: Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig Prediction, Pick and Odds

Appearing in his second straight fight in Brazil, Caio Borralho will attempt to climb the middleweight rankings at UFC 301 against promotional mainstay Paul Craig.

Borralho (15-1 with one no-contest, 5-0 in UFC) has not lost since his second professional fight, going undefeated for nearly a decade. Borralho last beat Abus Magomedov at UFC São Paulo to enter the middleweight rankings and looks to advance with another win.

Craig (17-7-1, 9-7-1 in UFC) dropped down to middleweight in 2023 after years of being a ranked contender at light heavyweight. Craig successfully entered the division with a TKO win over Andre Muniz but would be bested in his next and most recent outing by Brendan Allen in the main event of UFC Vegas 82.

As of Thursday morning, Borralho is becoming the largest favorite of the card at over 6-1 on some books.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig odds and round total

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig best bet

I am a bit surprised that Borralho is this big of a favorite but this is a matchup he should shine in. In his last four fights, Craig is just 1-3 with his last loss being particularly uncompetitive.

Craig is a high-level grappler and has proven his BJJ skills throughout his career but is essentially as one-dimensional as a ranked fighter can be and offers almost nothing on the feet. Borralho, a wrestler, plays right into what Craig wants but is also a BJJ black belt with excellent top pressure and control ability.

In similar matchups when Craig faces other fighters equipped to compete with him on the ground, Craig has lost badly to Brendan Allen, Tyson Pedro, and Jimmy Crute.

With a line this wide, one would expect a finish from the favorite in his home country, but Borralho has not tended to be much of a finisher in his career. Of his 15 career wins, seven have been by decision (46 percent) including all but one of his UFC fights.

Craig, however, has only lost by decision once, making the decision prop a little less intriguing. But of the seven losses Craig owns, three have been past the 1.5-round mark while Borralho has seen all but five of his fights go past the halfway point, a 71 percent clip.

Several sites offer the same game parlay option but the best price is currently with Bet365.

Prediction: Borralho by decision

Best bet: Caio Borralho ML and Over 1.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.