UFC 301: Elves Brenner vs. Myktybek Orolbai Prediction, Pick and Odds

Looking to follow up on a successful debut year in 2023, Elves Brenner returns to Brazil to face rising prospect Myktybek Orolbai in what has the potential to be the best fight of UFC 301.

Orolbai (12-1-1, 1-0 in UFC) came into the UFC on short notice at UFC Vegas 82 and immediately left an impression, submitting Uros Medic in the second round. The win was his seventh consecutive as he now drops back down to his natural weight class at 155 pounds.

Brenner (16-3, 3-0 in UFC) was one of the most impressive fighters in 2023. The Brazilian debuted at UFC 284 with an upset win over Zubaira Tukhugov before pulling off another shocking win five months later over Guram Kutateladze. To cap off a perfect year, Brenner brutally knocked out Kaynan Kruschewsky at UFC São Paulo and now returns to fight in his home country once more.

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Elves Brenner vs. Myktybek Orolabi odds and round total

Elves Brenner vs. Myktybek Orolbai best bet

Brenner was one of the most impressive debuting fighters in 2023 but his run in hindsight does not appear to be sustainable. After controversially winning a decision against Zubaira Tukhugov in his debut, Brenner pulled off a miraculous comeback against Guram Kutateladze before knocking out a short-notice opponent who was making his UFC debut.

Orolbai, meanwhile, is the real deal. Orolbai is a true lightweight but made his debut on one week's notice against Uros Medic, utilizing a smart game plan to finish a second-round submission.

The win proved Orolbai's potential and well-rounded skill set but at the end of the day, he is a natural striker. Orolbai took Medic down seven times but against Brenner, a high-level grappler with 11 career submissions, he will likely show fans his full arsenal on the feet.

Both fighters can finish this fight anywhere it goes with 25 combined finishes between the two of them. But neither has ever been finished themself, with just three combined losses all by decision. Orolbai has just one decision win on his record but it came just four fights ago in his LFA debut.

Orolbai is as well-rounded as a fighter can be and if the game plan goes south for him, look for him to fall back on his wrestling to slow the fight down. Brenner will be in his face for all 15 minutes but Orolbai just appears to be a level above.

In his three UFC fights, Brenner should have two decision losses on his record if not for a couple of favorable turn of events and Orolbai will not fade the way Kutateladze did late in the fight.

Prediction and best bet: Myktybek Orolbai by decision (+145)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.