UFC 301: Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey Prediction, Pick and Odds

As the first of three members of the Fighting Nerds team competing on UFC 301, Mauricio Ruffy will make his official UFC debut on the prelims against veteran Jamie Mullarkey.

Mullarkey (17-7, 5-5 in UFC) has been up and down in his UFC run thus far, having never won more than two consecutive fights. Mullarkey last competed at UFC Vegas 83, losing to Nasrat Haqparast by knockout less than two minutes into the fight.

Ruffy (9-1) earned his contract in October 2023 with a third-round knockout of former Combat Sambo world champion Raimond Magomedaliev as a heavy underdog. Ruffy now enters the promotion with four straight wins with his only loss to current PFL fighter and undefeated prospect Manoel Sousa.

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Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey odds and round total

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey best bet

Not long ago, Mullarkey was the fighter many considered to be on the rise as a talented striker and competent wrestler, but ten fights into his UFC career he has now been knocked out three times and dropped five times in the Octagon. Unfortunately for Mullarkey, as his durability appears to be waning, he faces an opponent in Ruffy who has only ever won by knockout.

As Mullarkey has seemed to recognize his lack of durability in recent performances he has attempted to wrestle more, landing six takedowns in his last four fights. In his UFC career, Mullarkey averages over two takedowns landed per 15 minutes but completes his shots at just a 34 percent clip.

Ruffy profiles as a heavy-handed striker but is more than competent with his grappling. Ruffy has kept all 10 of his career fights standing and faced his biggest test in his last outing against former Combat Sambo world champion Raimond Magomedaliev, stuffing all three of the Russian's takedown attempts before finding a third-round knockout.

If Mullarkey is content to strike, which he is prone to doing, the physical advantages he typically possesses will not be at his disposal against Ruffy. At 6'0", Mullarkey is usually the much taller fighter but Ruffy will match both his height and reach measurements in the cage.

In 10 professional fights, Ruffy has recorded eight knockdowns. Mullarkey, though not on a losing streak, has lost his last three defeats by knockout including his last outing ending in just over one minute. Overall, Mullarkey has dropped five of his seven career losses (71 percent) by knockout.

Mullarkey is not a pushover fight for any debuting lightweight but at this stage of his career, Ruffy is a terrible style matchup for the Aussie to face in enemy territory. Take the value on the Brazilian.

Prediction: Ruffy by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ (-105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.