UFC 301: Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith Prediction, Pick and Odds

Light heavyweight veteran Anthony Smith will attempt to win in enemy territory on May 4 as he takes on emerging contender Vitor Petrino on the main card of UFC 301.

Smith (37-19, 12-8 in UFC) has been at the top of the division since his debut at 205 pounds in 2018. However, at 35 years old, Smith has faltered of late, going just 1-3 in his last four fights. Smith last fought in December 2023, losing to Khalil Rountree Jr. by TKO in the third round.

Petrino (11-0, 4-0 in UFC) will return to fight in Brazil after just doing so at UFC São Paulo in November 2023. Petrino is making a quick turnaround to be a part of the pay-per-view main card after improving to 11-0 with a win over Tyson Pedro at UFC Vegas 87 in what ended up being the final fight of Pedro's career.

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Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith odds and round total

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith best bet

Smith may officially have only been knocked down once in his last four fights but the numbers do not tell the true story, as he was brutally beaten in each of them. The lone win in that frame was the result of a puzzling game plan from Ryan Spann, otherwise, he should be 0-4 since 2022.

Petrino is not a surefire contender yet, but this matchup favors him. With his power, Petrino can knock out nearly anybody on Earth and Smith, again, has been hurt by each of his last four opponents. In five Octagon appearances, Petrino has recorded two knockdowns, both resulting in finishes.

Of his 11 career fights, Petrino has won seven by knockout (64 percent). In 19 professional losses for Smith, 11 have been by knockout (58 percent), including two of his last four fights.

The grappling numbers do not appear to be much better for Smith either. While he is a BJJ black belt, Smith has completed just 26 percent of the takedowns he has attempted in the UFC. His last two takedowns have resulted in just a combined two minutes of control time.

Petrino has been taken down in the UFC before but defends them at a respectable 71 percent clip. Anton Turkalj, the only man to take Petrino down in the UFC, did so five times on 15 attempts. Smith has never attempted as many takedowns in the UFC.

When Petrino does get taken down, his bottom time is scarce. Of the six total times Petrino has been put down in the Octagon he has been able to reverse the position five times.

Father time catches up to everybody eventually, especially in the fight game. Unfortunately for Smith, 56 fights have appeared to have finally slowed him down. The matchup is right to fade Smith and Petrino should get the job done in a crowd-pleasing fashion.

Prediction: Petrino by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Vitor Petrino by KO/TKO (+115)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.