UFC 302 Main Event Preview: Dustin Poirer vs. Islam Makhachev Prediction, Pick and Odds

In his first title defense against a ranked lightweight contender, Islam Makhachev will headline UFC 302 against divisional veteran Dustin Poirier in Newark.

Makhachev (25-1, 14-1 in UFC) will look to make history at UFC 302 as a win would make him the sole owner of the longest win streak in the promotion's lightweight history. Since submitting Charles Oliveira at UFC 280, Makhachev has gone 3-0 as the champion with two subsequent title defenses against Alexander Volkanovski.

Poirier (30-8 with one no-contest, 22-7 with one no-contest in UFC) has previously served as the interim champion but never before held the undisputed title. In two previous attempts to do so, Poirier was submitted on both occasions by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Oliveira.

In his most recent performance, Poirier knocked out rising contender Benoit Saint-Denis at UFC 298 to be given the title shot despite being just 2-2 in his last four fights.

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Odds and Total

Moneyline

• Dustin Poirier: +430
• Islam Makhachev: -670

Total: 4.5 (Over -176/Under +138)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier Prediction and Pick

Poirier will receive love all week including on fight night but it would truly be a shock if he became the fighter to dethrone Makhachev as champion. His win over Benoit Saint-Denis was impressive and his social media gimmicks have been great, but he was still the UFC's fourth choice as an opponent for the champion at this event.

The discussions before his fight with Saint-Denis were around Poirier's grappling defense and his guillotine gimmick and knockout win seemed to have clouded many memories of the fact that he was seamlessly taken down three times in that fight and controlled for nearly five minutes.

Just two fights prior, almost the same happened to him against Michael Chandler, who also took him down three times for over five minutes of control time. Neither Saint-Denis or Chandler are the wrestler or grappler of Makhachev, who has won 44 percent of his fights by submission.

Makhachev and his team have entertained the idea of a striking battle with Poirier but make no mistake, the Eagles MMA and American Kickboxing Academy camps are of the most educated in the sport. Makhachev is a highly underrated striker but knows where this fight needs to occur for him to dominate and won't hesitate to commit.

In two previous title fights, Poirier is 0-2 with both losses by submission. In one previous fight against a former opponent of Khabib Nurmagomedov, Makhachev is 1-0, knocking out Gleison Tibau in 57 seconds. This all-business team will not tempt fate and is adept in their preparation.

Once the cage door closes in June, the three-month turnaround Poirier will be making is the quickest in his career since 2018. At age 35 with the amount of monetary success he has recognized, the retirement talk is not encouraging either.

Prediction: Makhachev by submission in round two

Best bet: Islam Makhachev by submission (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.