UFC 303: Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri Prediction, Pick and Odds

Ahead of his third UFC appearance, Payton Talbott is already one of the most hyped prospects in the promotion and has high expectations in his matchup with Yanis Ghemmouri on the prelims of UFC 303.

Talbott (8-0, 2-0 in UFC) had already received high praise from the media entering his fight with Reyes Cortez on Dana White's Contender Series but gained infinitely more attention after his last win over Cameron Saaiman. Still just 25, Talbott has created a notable highlight reel in just eight fights and has yet to face defeat.

Ghemmouri (12-2, 0-1 in UFC) will make his true first impression in the Octagon at UFC 303. Though he made his official debut at UFC Paris in a loss to William Gomis, he received a change in opponent during fight week, forcing him to compete at featherweight on short notice. Against Talbott, Ghemmouri will return to his true weight class as a bantamweight.

Track Jaren Kawada's daily picks and betting record on BetStamp here.

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Payton Talbott -1600
• Yanis Ghemmouri +900

Total Rounds:

• 1.5 (Over -195/Under +150)

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri best bet

Talbott has a ton of potential, but there is no reason anybody should take his money line price. Ghemmouri is not a bum, having picked up decent wins in BRAVE CF and UAE Warriors prior to signing with the UFC. This is the price that should be given if he was facing a top-10 contender, which Talbott is not yet.

That being said, Talbott is a large bantamweight with top-notch physicality and athleticism. While still raw, he is mature beyond his experience, showing superior vision and precision in his fights. In his last three performances, Talbott has landed and insane 8.05 significant strikes per minute on 54 percent striking accuracy.

Ghemmouri, a primary striker, will want to mix in wrestling attempts but has never been a chain wrestler. In a small sample size, Talbott has defended 90 percent of takedown attempts thus far, allowing Reyes Cortez to land just one on 17 attempts and Nick Aguirre to succeed on just 2 of 10 shots. More than likely, this fight will play out on the feet.

The odds suggest a quick knockout from Talbott would be the leading result but Ghemmouri, the slightly more experienced fighter, has never been knocked out in his career. He technically lost by TKO to William Gomis in his last outing, but it was the result of miscommunication between the fighter and the referee and not a true knockout. Talbott will likely still get to him, but not as early as many might believe.

For as long as the fight lasts, Talbott will be throwing constant volume. Against Cameron Saaiman, Talbott landed 79 significant strikes in just six minutes and 145 significant strikes on Cortez across three rounds. Aguirre did not allow much striking to take place in their matchup but Talbott's volume was still impressive, landing 28 significant strikes in a fight that included over nine minutes of combined control time.

Talbott should thrive in this matchup, but a quick knockout is not guaranteed. His high money line value has lowered the line on his significant strikes prop. Take the discount on Talbott to land OVER 55.5 significant strikes as a pressure and volume striker rather than a one-punch knockout artist.

Prediction: Talbott by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Payton Talbott Over 55.5 significant strikes (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.