UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2 Prediction, Pick and Odds

Three years after they initially met in the UFC APEX, Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad will lock horns in another five-round fight for the UFC welterweight championship.

The first fight between the two was a short-notice main event of UFC Vegas 21. The fight ended anticlimactically with an eye poke in the second round that led to a no-contest.

Edwards (22-3 with one no-contest, 14-2 with one no-contest in UFC) has been the UFC welterweight champion since 2022 when he won the belt in the most improbable fashion. Since winning the title at UFC 278, Edwards has defended it twice against Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.

Muhammad (23-3 with one no-contest, 14-3 with one no-contest in UFC) has shredded through the welterweight division since the no-contest with Edwards. Muhammad's campaign for the next title shot and a rematch with the champion peaked at UFC 288 when he convincingly beat Gilbert Burns in a five-round affair on short notice.

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Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2 odds and round total

Moneyline

• Muhammad: +210
• Edwards: -258

Total: 4.5 (Over -215/Under +165)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad 2 best bet

A lot will favor the champion fighting in his home country but with Muhammad being vastly underestimated, there is a chance to take advantage of the betting lines.

Many fans tend to dismiss Muhammad as he is not the typical fighter people want to see as a champion. He is dominant but does not have a highlight reel of finishes and often fights in a strategic manner that is unappealing to casual viewers.

Yet, when sizing up fight styles, Muhammad matches up fairly well with Edwards on paper. As a pure counter-striker, the champion often allows his opponent to dictate the pace and pattern of the fight. That style was successful against the watered-down version of Colby Covington but saw him struggle against Kamaru Usman. Edwards narrowly won the trilogy with Usman but was getting thoroughly dominated in their first two fights before he pulled off his iconic head kick.

Muhammad is far from the best striker in the division but is significantly underrated in that regard, out-striking four of his five opponents since UFC Vegas 21. Muhammad averages nearly two full significant strikes more than Edwards, who is vulnerable to being backed up against the fence which is where the 36-year-old challenger thrives.

It is worth noting that while the fight will be in Manchester, a two-hour drive from Edwards' hometown of Birmingham, the fighters will be meeting in the cage at roughly 5:30 a.m. UK with the event being catered to the American audience.

When Muhammad has lost, he has been overwhelmed with power. He was knocked out just once by Vicente Luque in 2016 but was dropped a combined five times by Geoff Neal and Alan Jouban in his other two decision losses. Edwards, while capable of generating knockouts, has just three knockout wins in the UFC. He did wobble Muhammad with a head kick in their first fight but there is little to take away from a short-notice bout three years before the rematch.

Muhammad may not win the fight but covering a 5.5-point spread is asking for him to win two rounds. Aside from his knockout loss to Luque, Muhammad has never been swept across the board in any of his fights. Since losing to Neal in 2019, he is 9-0 ATS while being an underdog in four of those fights.

Prediction: Muhammad by decision

Best bet: Belal Muhammad +5.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.