UFC 305: Carlos Prates vs. Li Jingliang Prediction, Pick and Odds

In his first fight in nearly two full years, Li 'The Leech' Jingliang returns in the UFC 305 main card against rising prospect Carlos Prates.

Prates (19-6, 2-0 in UFC) debuted in the UFC in February and has gone 2-0 in 2024 so far with two blistering knockouts. As a former Muay Thai fighter, Prates has shown his precision, power and timing have already made him one of the best strikers in the welterweight division, giving himself a chance to potentially threaten the 170-pound rankings by the end of the year.

Jingliang (19-8, 11-6 in UFC) was a fan-favorite action fighter before his two-year hiatus due to a spine injury. Although his injury issues and age have become a concern, Jingliang has still only lost to the best the division has to offer since becoming a contender.

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Carlos Prates vs. Li Jingliang odds and round total

Moneyline

• Carlos Prates: -375
• Li Jingliang: +295

Total: 2.5 (Over +124/Under -160)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Carlos Prates vs. Li Jingliang best bet

After two years away, multiple back surgeries and now returning at 36, it is impossible to feel comfortable taking Jingliang, even at the wide odds he is being priced at. However, he is still the best fighter Prates will be facing by a wide margin.

What has made Prates so special is his power and precision striking despite his lack of defensive fundamentals. With his Muay Thai background, Prates is routinely able to break down his opponents to find a finish, leading to eight straight knockout wins. Overall, Prates enters UFC 305 on a nine-fight win streak.

In the fight with Jingliang, Prates will get what he wants: a striker. Of his six losses, he has been knocked out before, but 50 percent of them have been by submission. He has significantly improved his ground game and takedown defense to shore up that part of his game but is still much more comfortable on the feet where he can outclass anybody.

However, while Jingliang has been out-struck before, he has never been knocked out. Most of his losses — 75 percent — have been by decision with the other two coming by submission. Jingliang is a better wrestler than Prates and could use that to his advantage at UFC 305 but is not as good of a grappler with his last submission victory in 2013.

Even if the best version of Jingliang shows up, Prates' accuracy and power will be too much for him. He is the type of fighter who quickly finds his rhythm and is difficult to stop once he gets there. But even with the injury concerns, expect Jingliang's durability to hold up. This fight has a chance to be the best on the card.

Prediction and best bet: Carlos Prates by decision (+350)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.