UFC 305: Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos Prediction, Pick and Odds (Expect Close Fight)

As one of the six Australians competing on the card, Josh Culibao will have the home advantage in his prelim matchup with Ricardo Ramos at UFC 305.

Culibao (11-3-1, 3-3-1 in UFC) has been up-and-down in his UFC tenure thus far with a dead-even record through seven fights. His last fight, a split decision loss to Danny Silva, put him on the first losing streak of his career. Although he has had his share of highs and lows, Culibao's best performance came in his last fight in Perth, a submission win over Melsik Baghdasaryan.

Ramos (16-6, 7-5 in UFC) began his career as a promising young prospect but has fallen off as of late, going just 2-4 since 2020. Like Culibao, Ramos' last loss to Julian Erosa was his second consecutive, giving him the first losing streak of his career.

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Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos odds and round total

Moneyline

• Josh Culibao: -148
• Ricardo Ramos: +124

Total: 2.5 (Over -125/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos best bet

When Ramos has lost, it has been quickly and violently. Of his six career losses, five have come inside the distance with two knockout losses and three submission defeats. The only problem is Culibao has not been much of a finisher lately with just one finish in the UFC, the lone submission win in his career.

As evidenced by his 3-3-1 UFC record, nearly all of Culibao's fights have been competitive and razor-thin when it comes to the margin of error. They often come down to one or two seemingly minute factors influencing the judges' decision. As such, in his 15 career fights, Culibao has been to six split or majority decisions, a shockingly high 40 percent of his total outings.

Given that, Culibao has covered a -3.5 point spread — the current line — just once in his seven UFC fights, a 17 percent hit rate. Ramos, on the other hand, has covered +3.5 in eight of his 12 Octagon bouts — 67 percent. Culibao's lone cover was the one submission win against Melsik Baghdasaryan. While Ramos lost his last two of that method, that was the only submission win of Culibao's career and came in a wild scramble leading to him getting back position.

In his career, Culibao has fared exceptionally well against wrestlers and he has never lost when fighting in Australia. But given his history of fighting to close decisions, this fight has the look of one that will have both guys praying at the end of a 15-minute battle.

Prediction: Culibao by decision

Best bet: Ricardo Ramos +3.5 (-110)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.