UFC 305: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker Prediction, Pick and Odds

Dan Hooker pushed the UFC to fight on this card in Perth and will have his wish granted as he faces Mateusz Gamrot on the main card of UFC 305.

Gamrot (24-2 with one no-contest, 7-2 in UFC) is not only the higher-ranked fighter but enters the fight as the sizeable betting favorite. Despite stumbling twice as a favorite in the UFC, the Pole has overall impressed in the Octagon and brings a three-fight win streak into the matchup on Aug. 17. Gamrot last competed at UFC 299, rallying to beat former champion Rafael dos Anjos by decision.

Hooker (23-12, 13-8 in UFC) spent his previous two fights defending his ranking against rising prospects but now gets a chance to fight up against a top-five fighter. After becoming a top-five contender himself, Hooker briefly endured a rough stretch of fights in which he went just 1-4 but has rebounded with back-to-back wins, including an impressive battle with Jalin Turner at UFC 290.

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Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker odds and round total

Moneyline

• Mateusz Gamrot: -325
• Daniel Hooker: +260

Total: 2.5 (Over -260/Under +195)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker best bet

If it was not obvious from watching it live, Hooker's war with Jalin Turner at UFC 290 took a lot out of him. So much so that it was his only fight of 2023 and caused him to take a year-long layoff, his first time competing just once in a calendar year since debuting as a professional in 2009.

But for as labored as Hooker may be from his last fight, he has historically fared well against wrestlers in the UFC. Since entering the promotion in 2014, Hooker has only been taken down and controlled for the majority of a fight twice: once by Jason Knight at featherweight in 2016 and once by current 155-pound champion Islam Makhachev. Other than those two blips, the Kiwi has dominant wins over wrestling-based fighters including Jim Miller, Al Iaquinta, Gilbert Burns, Marc Diakiese and Claudio Puelles.

However, even considering Hooker's past success against wrestlers, Gamrot poses a different threat as a chain wrestler who has almost no intention to strike. While the style will be different, the last fighter intent on getting Hooker down was Makhachev, who submitted him in under three minutes.

But for as good as Gamrot has been, he has been far from perfect, particularly against ranked opposition. Although he is 4-1 in his last five fights, Gamrot has been knocked down in four of those bouts with the only fighter not doing so — Rafael Fiziev — suffering a freak injury just seven minutes in. Hooker has knocked down both of his last two opponents.

Since becoming a ranked fighter, Gamrot is just 2-3 ATS and has covered a -3.5-point spread only once in the fight that Fiziev tore his ACL. Conversely, Hooker has covered his point spread in 14 of his 21 UFC fights, a 67 percent clip.

With the relentless chain wrestling attack from Gamrot paired with his durability having never been finished, it is hard to be confident in Hooker winning this matchup, even in Australia. But counting on him to win just a single round is something he can do so with a single punch.

Prediction: Gamrot by decision

Best bet: Dan Hooker +3.5 (-105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.