UFC Atlantic City: Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction, Pick and Odds

As two dominant flyweights with identical 6-0 records in the UFC, Erin Blanchfield and Manon Fiorot will meet in the main event of UFC Atlantic City with the winner all but certain to receive a title shot.

Blanchfield (12-1, 6-0 in UFC) will be in her element as the betting favorite and hometown fighter as a native of New Jersey. Since entering the Octagon, Blanchfield has essentially dominated all of her opposition, causing most fans to believe she will be a future champion. Blanchfield broke through with a submission of Jessica Andrade in early 2023 and last beat former title challenger Taila Santos.

Though not owning as many fans as Blanchfield, Fiorot (11-1, 6-0 in UFC) has had an equally impressive rise to the top. As a former karate and Muay Thai fighter, Fiorot gained fans' attention for finishing her first two UFC opponents and has since picked up decision wins over Mayra Bueno Silva, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Cerminara and Rose Namajunas.

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Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot odds and round total

Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot best bet

The popular pick in this matchup all week has been Blanchfield and it is tough to deny the 24-year-old in her home state. Yet, I foresee a much more competitive fight than others and do not think either fighter will finish the other.

To this point, Blanchfield has largely physically dominated most of her opponents and used that advantage to find a finish. Not much of a wrestler, Blanchfield tends to be content to strike before using a clinch exchange to initiate a takedown attempt.

Against smaller opponents, Blanchfield has run through her competition en route to a finish, as seen in her fights with Jessica Andrade and Molly McCann. But against larger opponents — such as Taila Santos, Miranda Maverick and Sarah Alpar — Blanchfield has still been dominant but less successful at securing a submission.

Fiorot will not only be the biggest opponent of Blanchfield's career but she will also be the best striker given her accomplished Muay Thai background. In her six UFC fights, Fiorot has defended 91 percent of takedowns attempted on her while landing 6.05 significant strikes per minute on the feet. In the lone loss of her career entering UFC Atlantic City, Fiorot has only fallen to Leah McCourt in her professional debut, a fighter who is now a featherweight in Bellator.

In 12 professional wins, Blanchfield has won six by decision (50 percent). In 11 career wins, Fiorot has won five by decision (54.5 percent). Both fighters only have one loss each and neither has been finished.

With nearly 70 percent of public money coming in on Blanchfield, I will lean the other direction and pick Fiorot to pull off the upset using her physicality and volume on the feet. But regardless of who gets the win, bettors have statistical value on the round total with neither woman likely to find a finish.

Through 10 UFC events in 2024 so far, the main event round total has gone OVER eight times (80 percent) with seven of those fights going to a decision. Take the over.

Prediction: Fiorot by decision

Best bet: Over 4.5 rounds (-105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.