Betsided

UFC Austin is an Underdogs Bettors Paradise (Joe Lauzon, Tony Kelley Provide Betting Value)

By Reed Wallach

Oct 18, 2019; Boston, MA, USA; Joe Lauzon (red) reacts after defeating Jonathan Pearce (blue) by TKO
Oct 18, 2019; Boston, MA, USA; Joe Lauzon (red) reacts after defeating Jonathan Pearce (blue) by TKO / Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
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The UFC takes their talents to Austin for a Fight Night card headlined by a featherweight scrap between Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett.

However, I'm looking down the card for some underdog value on this ESPN event. There are plenty of vulnerable favorites on the card that I'm looking to fade and cash a big payout on.

Here are two underdogs that are live for an upset with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

UFC RECORD: 27-38, -10.93U

Tony Kelley (+230) vs. Adrian Yanez (-270)

As I mentioned on this week's Jab, Cross, Hook, I think Kelley has the durability to hold up against Yanez and can take over the fight late.

Both guys throw a ton of heat, but Yanez has been KO or bust in his run up the UFC ladder. He has lost all three of his fights by decision and he was able to grab a split decision last time out. If Kelley can weather the early offense from Yanez, I expect him to grow into this fight and take a decision victory.

The key will be avoiding the power of Yanez and get this against the cage and in the clinch, once there, 'Primetime' can operate in close quarters and sap some of the power and win equity Yanez possesses.

At this number, I like Kelley to take the upset victory.

PICK: Kelley +230

Joe Lauzon (+135) vs. Donald Cerrone (-165)

This is my favorite spot on the card. These two were supposed to fight at UFC 274 but it was cancelled on fight day due to Cerrone coming down with food poisoning after looking awful on the scales.

There are question marks all over this fight as Lauzon hasn't fought since 2019 while Cerrone appears to be in the twilight of his career following four consecutive losses. Lauzon may be 38, but he appears to be in far better shape and interested in making a comeback, while 'Cowboy' looks to be cashing paychecks.

'J-Lau' has had cardio issues in the past and may be Round 1 or bust, but I think he is going to hurt Cerrone early and make this a quick finish, the 54 fights has taken it's toll and I can't trust him anymore.

I like Lauzon to win and also think there's value in taking a Round 1 finish at +1000 for 0.5 units.

PICK: Lauzon +135

UFC Fight Night Best Bets

  • Calvin Kattar/Kyle Daukaus ML Parlay (+102) 1.5U
  • Court McGree ML (-125)
  • Phil Hawes vs. Deron Winn Fight Does Not Go Distance/Albert Duraev vs. Joaquin Buckley Fight Does Not Go Distance (+138)
  • Julian Marquez ITD (+290)
  • McGee/Kattar ML (+150) 1.5U

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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