UFC Denver: Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova Prediction, Pick and Odds

After causing months of chaos on social media, Mariya Agapova will finally return to the cage at UFC Denver against Luana Santos in her first fight in 22 months.

Santos (7-1, 2-0 in UFC), the biggest favorite on the card, is moving back down to flyweight after a one-fight stint at bantamweight. Still undefeated in the UFC, Santos has picked up impressive wins over TUF 30 winner Juliana Miller and Stephanie Egger entering July 13.

Agapova (10-4, 2-3 in UFC) has not fought since losing to Gillian Robertson in September 2022. The loss was her second consecutive after losing to Maryna Moroz six months prior, putting her on the first losing streak of her career.

Since her last fight, Agapova has been vocal on social media in letting the public know how her struggle to get a fight has impacted her personal life. According to the fighter's Instagram page, she has faced potential homelessness and removal from her team's gym due to her struggling financial situation in her time away from the Octagon.

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Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova odds and round total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Luana Santos -395
• Mariya Agapova +310

Total Rounds:

• 2.5 (Over +110/Under -140)

Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova best bet

It was not too long ago that Agapova was one of the most-hyped prospects in women's MMA but that push quickly died down following a loss to Shana Dobson at UFC Vegas 7 as a 14-1 favorite. Now entering her sixth UFC fight, Agapova has just one win in her last four appearances.

With the way Agapova publicly criticized the UFC and its handling of fighters, the matchmakers appear to have taken it out on her with this matchup. Santos was not on the UFC roster at the time of Agapova's last fight but has already picked up two impressive wins in the promotion and has the look of a future contender.

Agapova is almost always pushing the action in any way but has tended to win fights with her grappling, finishing most of her fights by dominating opponents on the ground. However, Santos — a Judo black belt and a former member of the Brazilian Judo national team — has only been taken down once in the UFC for a total of one minute of control time.

Despite winning 50 percent of her victories by submission, Agapova has completed just two takedowns in the UFC, both against Dobson, who was able to reverse position both times. Both of Agapova's UFC wins came shortly after she scored a knockdown, a feat that will be difficult to replicate against Santos, who has never been dropped in her career.

Entering UFC Denver, the two fighters Agapova has defeated are no longer in the UFC. One of the fighters, Hannah Cifers, is a career strawweight who accepted the matchup on short notice.

When Agapova has lost in her career, it has been inside the distance with 75 percent of her defeats before the final horn. Tracy Cortez, the only fighter to beat her by decision, has won 82 percent of her fights with the scorecards.

Prediction: Santos by submission in round two

Best bet: Luana Santos by KO/TKO or submission (+100)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.