UFC on ESPN 36: Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic Prediction, Odds (Former Light Heavyweight Champion Gets Win)
By Reed Wallach
The UFC follows up a loaded pay-per-view card with a massive battle in the Light Heavyweight division.
Former Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz makes his return to the octagon after losing his belt to Glover Teixeira in his last fight, facing emerging contender Aleksandar Rakic in the main event of UFC on ESPN 36.
This fight was originally scheduled for March 26, 2022, but was pushed back after the former champ suffered an injury in training that left him temporarily paralyzed on one side of his body.
Jan Blachowicz pulled out of his fight when he hurt his neck and was paralyzed on one side of his body. That is so scary. From the @MMAFighting article: "I took one shot on my guard, and I felt a really hard pain in my neck, and I cannot feel my left hand and left side of my body
— Nicole Bosco (@NikBos) April 29, 2022
How does this injury change the outlook of this fight? Let's first check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook before sharing our early thoughts on the main event.
Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic Odds, Total
Moneyline:
- Blachowciz: +155
- Rakic: -185
Total: 3.5 (Over -115/Under -105)
Jan Blachowicz vs. Aleksandar Rakic Prediction and Pick
Blachowicz run to the Light Heavyweight gold came on a five-fight winning streak where he was an underdog in 4 of them. In his most recent fight, the title fight defeat to Teixeira, he was a considerable favorite in that one at -265. It seems that there has been a pattern to betting Blachowicz, who seems to outperform his price as an underdog but not separate when a favorite.
He finds himself in a familiar position against Rakic, catching a considerable plus-money price. Rakic presents a two-inch height advantage, but the two have the same reach. The Austrian is 14-2 in his MMA career with nine wins coming by knockout. He has been able to use his size advantage to overwhelm veterans like Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos of late, but I believe this is a big jump in class for him against a capable grappler and striker in Balchowicz.
I'm a bit concerned about the condition of the Polish fighter in his return to the octagon after a scary injury, but my first lean is to him. Rakic doesn't push a crazy pace and we have seen Blachowicz win with his grappling and fantastic knockout power. Rakic hasn't been challenged by this type of striking, so if we get a healthy Blachowicz, I expect him to look close to his championship self. I can't pass up the number at the time of this writing, but I will also want to see what the former champ says at his press conference before making this a one unit play.
LEAN: Blachowicz +155
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