UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade Best Bets and Prediction
By Reed Wallach
We are LIVE!
The UFC is on ESPN on Saturday, April 23rd with a massive showdown at Strawweight with former champion Jessica Andrade returning to the the division she won a championship at against the fast rising dangerous striker Amanda Lemos.
This bout will help set the pecking order at Strawweight, but we have a loaded 11 fight card underneath this women's main event, so let's waste no time and get to it.
Piss poor weekend from me last week after misreading the Vincente Luque-Belal Muhammad main event, so we'll look for a bounce back this weekend.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook
UFC Record: 15-19 -3.96 Units
Main Event: Jessica Andrade (-215) vs. Amanda Lemos (+175)
These two have combined for 16 finishes in their 33 victories, and we can certainly expect violence in Saturday's five round main event.
Andrade is a former champion, but quickly moved to flyweight after losing her belt in a rematch to Rose Namajunas, where she went 2-1. Her only loss was to Valentina Shevchenko, who is arguably the best women's fighter alive, so no harm there, but is she ready to move up in class again and face a violent striker in Lemos?
Andrade will be far and away the toughest test for Lemos, but the early returns are special for the Brazilian. She hasn't faced a striker like Andrade, but she sports an 87% takedown defense and boasts a three-inch size and reach advantage. If she can stick her opponent at range, she can find a finish against "Bate Estaca," who has been finished in two of her last three fights.
I don't have a strong lean in this one but I do see two potential betting angles: Lemos by KO (+333) or live betting Andrade after the first round. Lemos is as dangerous as any striker in women's MMA at the moment, but Andrade is more than capable of pushing a pace, securing takedowns and holding off the early offense from her opponent. If this fight gets out of the first few minutes, I expect the former champion to take over and secure a victory.
For now, I'm on the sidelines, but will be eyeing Bate Estaca live after the first round.
LEAN: Andrade LIVE after Round 1
Clay Guida (-115) vs. Claudio Puelles (-105)
Guida is 40 years old and may be in the twilight of his career but I still see him as the clear favorite over Puelles, who is 14 years younger but is the far more conservative fighter.
Guida's recent losses have come to far superior competition like wrestling maven Mark O. Madsen, submission ace Jim Miller and Bobby Green. While Puelles has won four straight fights, a pair are by third round submissions and he has not thrown more than 43 strikes in any of those fights.
'El Nino' is not adept at securing takedowns and controlling grappling exchanges while Guida pushes a crazy pace and has significantly stronger striking defense. I believe Guida can handle whatever his opponent throws his way and also be the aggressor from the opening bell. Once again, the pace is going to be a big test for Puelles and I don't think he holds up.
At a near pick 'em, I'll take a stab on the veteran that I believe has a path to grabbing a clear 29-28 decision.
PICK: Guida -115 2U
Underdog Bet: Cameron Else (+190) vs. Aori Qileng (-235)
I love Else at this price. While he lost his debut to future contender Kyler Philips, I'm not fazed. Qileng lost to a pair of opponents that are significantly worse. Maybe it's the fact that Else was knocked out is driving this price, but I'll side with the England born fighter.
Else presents a 2" height and reach advantage and has far more finishing upside. Cardio could be an issue considering he has never won by decision, but he has plenty of paths to victory by getting this fight to the ground.
Qileng absord 168 strikes in his debut against Jeff Molina and was taken down 3 times by Cody Durden. While Else may not be a future champion in the UFC, but he is a capable grappler (submitting trendy UFC name Paddy Pimblett years ago) and more than willing to let his hands go with 6 knockouts to his name.
At nearly 2-1, I'll happily take Else, who is being undervalued due to a loss against a legitimate contender at bantamweight.
PICK: Else +190
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!