UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic Prediction, Odds, Best Bets
By Reed Wallach
We are LIVE!
The UFC is back on ESPN following a wild UFC 274 with a main event in the Light Heavyweight division. Former champion Jan Blachowicz is back in the octagon after losing his championship to Glover Teixeira in late 2021, but will look to prove he is still a contender for the belt by beating rising contender Aleksandar Rakic.
There is plenty of action on the UFC Fight Night card which gets started at 7 PM EST on ESPN+, but let's dish out some bets. Coming off a strong UFC 274, I'll look to clean that record up after a cold streak. Onto it.
Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
UFC COLUMN RECORD: 20-28 -9.5 IN 2022
Jan Blachowicz (+165) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (-200)
Blachowicz run to the Light Heavyweight gold came on a five-fight winning streak where he was an underdog in 4 of them. In his most recent fight, the title fight defeat to Teixeira, he was a considerable favorite in that one at -265. It seems that there has been a pattern to betting Blachowicz, who seems to outperform his price as an underdog but not separate when a favorite.
He finds himself in a familiar position against Rakic, catching a considerable plus-money price. Rakic presents a two-inch height advantage, but the two have the same reach. The Austrian is 14-2 in his MMA career with nine wins coming by knockout. He has been able to use his size advantage to overwhelm veterans like Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos of late, but I believe this is a big jump in class for him against a capable grappler and striker in Balchowicz.
He finds himself in a familiar position against Rakic, catching a considerable plus-money price. Rakic presents a two-inch height advantage, but the two have the same reach. The Austrian is 14-2 in his MMA career with nine wins coming by knockout. He has been able to use his size advantage to overwhelm veterans like Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos of late, but I believe this is a big jump in class for him against a capable grappler and striker in Balchowicz.
Ultimately, I'll back Blachowicz as an underdog again. Rakic has been able to win low output fights in his run up the ranks and I'll bank on the former champion to come into this one correct and over his injury that led to the postponement. Blachowicz is capable all over and this line has drifted too far out not to come back and play him.
PICK: Blachowicz +165
Louis Smolka (+260) vs. Davey Grant (-320)
Grant had an interesting run of late, finishing two unranked fighters and then losing a pair of decisions to far better competition. Now, he's catching Louis Smolka, who lost via first round knockout in his last fight.
Sure, that's a concern, but I can't get to this price at all. Both of these fighters are hunting for a finish, 26 of their combined 30 victories have come inside the distance, but Smolka is the far more dangerous grappler. While Grant has 8 submission victories to his name, the last sub came in 2012.
There's going to be action in this fight, and I see plenty of paths to victory from the aggressive Smolka, both in the standout and on the ground. The later this goes, I see 'Da Last Samauri' having more paths to victory.
PICK: Smolka +260
Virna Jandiroba (-195) vs. Angela Hill (+160)
Jandiroba seems to have a defined ceiling in the UFC, struggling with grapple heavy opponents she is an underdog against, but she knows how to take care of business as a favorite. That's where we find 'Carcara' on Saturday night.
Hill has been on the wrong side of a handful of decisions of late, but continues to be booked against legitimate competition, now 13-11. Hill throws a ton of volume, averaging more than 5 significant strikes per minute according to UFCStats.com, but doesn't find a ton of success with her strikes. Jandiroba has never been finished in her MMA career, and I would be surpsied if Hill was the one to dish that out.
I see plenty of avenues for success for Jandiroba's grappling game. While Hill has been able to fend off takedowns at a high clip, 78%, she's far from perfect, taken down at least once in five of her six fights. Jandiroba is one of the slickest grapplers in the division and can get this to the ground and likely find a finish.
The number is a bit short on a submission price, but I do see that as the result. Instead, I'll just lay the number on Jandiroba and add her into a parlay with Katlyn Chookigan.
PICK: Jandiroba ML (-195), Jandiroba/Chookigan ML Parlay (+130)
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic Best Bets
- Nick Maximov by Submission (+420) 0.5U
- Viviane Araujo (+100)
- Manuel Torres/Jake Hadley (+155)
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!