UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori Prediction and Best Bets

The UFC is on ESPN+ on Saturday afternoon with an interesting main event, featuring No. 2 middleweight contender Paulo Costa and No. 5 Marvin Vettori.

However, this fight will be fought at light heavyweight due to Costa's inability to cut weight, 20 pounds higher than the agreed upon weight.

We will discuss that high profile fight, but there are 13 other fights to dissect on the card, so let's get to it.

All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook on Friday morning.

Main Event: Marvin Vettori (-185) vs. Paulo Costa (+155)

This fight is becoming a mess. The set weight for this bout has changed twice in the hours leading up to the fight, going from 185 to catchweight at 195, now to 205 which is a full weight class above where the two men typically fight.

This is all because Costa has said he can't make weight, which would be concerning if he had to cut to get to 185, but Vetorri is instead coming to fight at 20 pounds greater than his usual fight weight.

To me, there are two outcomes, Costa early in the fight (by knockout) or Vettori late (after round two).

Sprinkling on Costa by KO is a great way to open a position on this match. While 'The Italian Dream' has never been knocked out before, Vettori is fighting at a different weight class and may not handle the power the same way.

However, after the second round, I'll be live betting Vettori if he is still standing.

Pick: Costa by KO +230 for .5U, live bet Vettori after R2

Main Card Parlay: Nicolae Negumereanu (-235)/Grant Dawson (-470)

Negumerenu is skilled at light heavyweight and has been able to grind out decision victories to date, but now will be facing a fringe UFC talent in Ike Villanueva. Negumereanu has a five inch reach advantage and will be able to touch up Villanueva and I expect him to win swiftly.

I'll pair him with slick grappler Grant Dawson, who is a massive favorite against Ricky Glenn. Glenn is only fighting for the second time since 2018 and will struggle with Dawson's pressure, averaging more than three takedowns per 15 minutes. Futher,15 of Dawson's 17 wins have ended inside the distance and I expect another here.

It's a bit pricey, but I think both close looking cheaper than their line, so I'll play this parlay at -137 and all the way up to -150.

Prop Bet: Jai Herbert By Knockout

This line isn't available at WynnBET Sportsbook just yet, but I would play this at anything + money.

Herbert has a significant size advantage, four inches of height and three inches of reach, and packs a ton of power. He had a flukey knockout loss to Francisco Trinaldo last year by knockout that he was winning and was subbed this past summer.

However, he is facing a fighter in Worthy who won't be able to handle his striking and go down quickly. Worthy has been finished in the first round by KO in his last two fights and I expect a similar fate here.