UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera Best Bets for Saturday, April 30

Dec 7, 2019; Washington, DC, USA; Rob Font (red gloves) fights Ricky Simon (blue gloves) during UFC
Dec 7, 2019; Washington, DC, USA; Rob Font (red gloves) fights Ricky Simon (blue gloves) during UFC / Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
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The UFC is back at the Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada with a Fight Night card that is highlighted by a battle of Bantamweight contenders. Rob Font is coming off of a loss to Jose Aldo, but is still No. 5 in the UFC's rankings while Marlon Vera enters as No. 8 in the weight class.

Overall, we have 12 fights to choose from and I have to get back on track after a pair of stinkers the past two weeks sending me into the red. Onto it:

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Column Record: 15-22 (-7.15 Units)

Main Event: Rob Font (-135) vs. Marlon Vera (+115)

I think this is the ultimate buy low spot on Rob Font, who is coming off a decision loss to Aldo in a main event. Font nearly doubled Aldo in significant strikes (149-86) but had some poor closes to rounds and lost the championship ones to cost him.

Now he gets Vera, who is a winner of two straight against non contenders. I think this is a discount on a contender at Bantamweight in Font. He can win the stand up and also challenge Vera with his grappling, averaging more than 1 takedown per 15 minutes. Ultimately, Vera appears more like a gatekeeper at this weight class while Font is firmly amongst the elite.

I'm taking advantage of this price and putting 3U on Font to outclass Vera. Keep in mind that he is coming off of back-to-back 5 round affairs, so he may have the cardio edge against Vera, who has never went into championship rounds.

PICK: Font ML -135 3U

Parlay: Andrei Arlovski/Gina Mazany (+168)

I'm going to ride with my Jab, Cross, Hook co-host Iain McMillan, who is all over Mazany on the prelim card, but I will look to avoid the -185 moneyline and pair her with a small favorite in Arlovski.

Mazany may have a cardio issue later in the fight, but she is going to control much of this fight given her ability to shoot for takedowns and get them against Shanna Young, who has shown little abilty to stop those attempts. She has a 53% takedown defense during her 0-3 start in the UFC, per UFCStats.com. I like Mazany to grind her way to a decision victory as she controls much of the fight on the ground.

I'll pair her with Arlovski, who at 43, seems like he can't be stopped. He is incredibly durable and has shown fantastic cardio despite his age. It may not be pretty, but 'Pitbull' has looked the part over his last 3 fights, all wins. Collier may push a faster pace, throwing nearly 2 significant strike per minute, but is the weaker grappler and is vulnerable to taking more punishment.

Collier is coming off wins against Chase Sherman and Gian Villante with a loss against Carlos Felipe sandwiched in between, all of those fighters are not of the same level as Arlovski, who can dictate the terms of this fight and grind a decision victory.

PICK: Arlovski/Mazany (+168)

Underdog Bet: Tristan Connelly (+150) vs. Darren Elkins (-180)

I think we are getting Connelly at a bit of a discount after he lost to Pat Sabatini last time out. He closed about a +140 underdog in that fight and I don't see Elkins as the better fighter. Elkins has proven to be very vulnerable, knocked out in the first round of his last fight to Cub Swanson and sporting a 56% takedown defense.

Connelly has the grappling edge and also can pack a bit more power in his striking. While there is only 1 year separating the two, Elkins has 16 more fights to his name and looks like he is on a downward trend.

No, Connelly isn't the striker Swanson is, but it shows the lack of durability for Elkins which can lead to dangerous situations for the veteran. I think this fight is more of a coin flip than this line is indicating. Elkins has lost 5 of his last 7, why is he favored?

PICK: Connelly +150

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera Best Bets

  • Andrei Arlovski -130
  • Yohan Lainesse +110


You can find all of Reed's bets
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