UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Rodriguez Preview & Best Bets

Jul 27, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, Canada;  Max Holloway (red gloves) defeats Frankie Edgar (blue
Jul 27, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, Canada; Max Holloway (red gloves) defeats Frankie Edgar (blue / Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

Max Holloway makes his return to the octagon off of a win against Calvin Kattar, headlining the UFC Fight Night card this Saturday.

The former featherweight champion will be facing Yair Rodriguez, who will be in action for the first time since 2019.

We have that and 10 other fights, starting at 1 PM EST on ESPN+. Here are three best bets for the card, with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Best Bets For UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez

  • Holloway WIN by Decision (+125)
  • Miguel Baeza WIN (-140)
  • Andrea Lee WIN (+115)

Main Event: Max Holloway (-660) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+440)

Holloway is the rightful chalk here, and I'll be looking to play him to win by decision.

'Blessed' fights at a relentless pace, averaging more than seven strikes landed per minute and an average fight time over 15 minutes in the UFC. Holloway throws with unique angles and is a stellar grappler agianst the cage. He knows how to win minutes and I see him keeping Rodriguez behind on the scorecards for all 25 minutes.

Of course, I won't advocate for Holloway at this price, but at +125 to win by decision, I see that as a strong bet. Holloway hasn't knocked out anyone since 2018, and since losing two in a row to current champion Alex Volkanovski, he is fighting men a step below his skill level.

This should be another clear victory for Holloway in his pursuit to win back the gold.

Pick: Holloway by Decision +125

Miguel Baeza (-140) vs. Kalinn Williams (+120)

Baeza is coming off a tough decision loss in his last fight to Santiago Ponzinibbio, the first of his career, but he's in a good spot to bounce back here against 'Khaos' Williams at a short price.

Baeza has two inches on his opponent and has shown a more diverse game, averaging nearly one takedown per 15 mintues and the ability to control grappling exchanges while also throwing vicious shots out of the pocket.

Williams on the other hands is a predictable fighter who has knockout power, but that's pretty much it. I see Baeza closer to -175, so I see value on taking the more complete fighter to withstand some early 'Khaos' and either win on the score cards or with a late finish.

Pick: Baeza -140

Underdog Bet: Cynthia Calvillo (-135) vs. Andrea Lee (+115)

While I like betting Calvillo as an underdog, I can't back her as a favorite given her track record at flyweight. We have seen her struggle against bigger competition like Jessica Andrade and Katlyn Chookagian.

While Lee is not an elite fighter by any means I see her a valuable bet given she has four inches of reach and two inches of height on her opponent and has shown some moments in grappling exchanges.

If this stays at range, I see Lee throwing more power and impressing the judges against Calvillo's weak offerings.

This is a play on price and I make Lee a small favorite.

Pick: Lee +115

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