UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez Best Bets, Prediction

UFC 222: Edgar v Ortega
UFC 222: Edgar v Ortega / Isaac Brekken/GettyImages

Afternoon fights? You got it!

We have an afternoon UFC card on ABC this weekend, getting started at 11 PM EST and headlined by a Featherweight main event between contenders Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez.

Coming off a dud of a UFC betting weekend last time out, I have a big bet on the main event, keep reading to find out why I'm on a particular side.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

UFC RECORD: 38-57 -13.04U

Main Event: Brian Ortega (-180) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+160)

As I mentioned on Monday in the fight card preview, I love Ortega in this spot.

While Ortega did lose a convincing decision to Alexander Volkanovski in a Featherweight title match last September, he put the champ in as dangerous situations as any competitor has in recent memory. 'T-City' has shown he has as durable as anyone in the weight class and should be able to outclass Rodriguez on the feet.

Rodriguez returned from a significant layoff to lose a competitive decision to Max Holloway. While there's no shame in losing to the former champion after sitting out since 2019, Holloway took down Rodriguez three times and Ortega is far more dangerous on the mat. If Ortega drags 'El Pantera' down as much as Holloway did, he will find the finish.

If we look further back, prior to his layoff, Rodriguez won a decision victory in 2019 over Jeremy Stephens (who is out of the promotion) after the two had a no contest prior to that. Before those two bouts, he scored a last second KO against Korean Zombie and was finished by Frankie Edgar the time before that.

There is little to go off of that justifies Rodriguez being this short of a price to Ortega, who has shown to be a five round fighter since a layoff of his own.

Give me Ortega at this number in what should be a convincing victory.

PICK: Ortega ML (-180) to win 2.5U, Ortega by submission (+200) 0.5U

Dustin Jacoby (+100) vs. Da Un Jung (-120)

Jung has taken money and has become the favorite over Jacoby, but I'm going to play back against it.

Jacoby is the far superior striker, averaging one more striker per minute over Jung and has the better striking defense (58% vs. 55%) and is more adept at throwing leg kicks. While 'Sseda' averages more takedowns they are far from impressive and I actually give Jacoby the nod in those exchanges.

Jung fought Sam Alvey to a draw which is a huge blemish given the track record of Alvey. Since, he has won both of his fights, but the first was when he was able to ragdoll William Knight to eight takedowns and then the next was a first round knockout against Kennedy Nzechukwu. I don't see either of those outcomes coming given that Jacoby has been KO'ed once before and has fought more dangerous strikers.

I'll take Jacoby at even money.

PICK: Jacoby ML (+100) to win

UFC Fight Night Best Bets

  • Dustin Stoltzfus (+110)
  • Matt Schnell (+215) 0.5U
  • Li Jingliang (+134)
  • Michelle Waterson by Decision (+420)

Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp HERE!