UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Best Bets, Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Makhachev v Moises Weigh-in
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev v Moises Weigh-in / Handout/GettyImages

Following a record setting UFC event in terms of finishes, the promotion is back on ESPN with a battle of two rising Lightweights.

Saturday's UFC fight card is headlined by Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot in a battle that will help find the next new contender in the weight class. There's 12 fights on the card and I've got you covered with my best bets.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

UFC RECORD: 28-43, -14.55U

Mateusz Gamrot (+240) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (-300)

These guys are both legit, but I'm not sure I can get to this price with Tsarukyan. These men have combined for a 38-3 record thus far and both are incredibly technical fighters.

Both men are adept at striking and can grapple with the best of them. The difference between the two aren't all that great and I think that Tsarukyan's run of late is overvaluing him in this spot. In his last fight Tsarukyan finished Joel Alvarez in the second round, but this is a big step up in class for him.

He did benefit from a headbutt in that fight that could've swung that fight and the grappling prowess Gamrot has can lead to a more technical, slower fight. Not to mention, Gamrot has gone five rounds twice before outside of the UFC, Tsarukyan has not. What happens if this fight goes late? I'll give the edge to the proven commodity.

Gamrot is taller by three inches, but does have two less inches of reach. Closing the distance can be a challenge against the Russian born fighter, but Gamrot has the size and grappling edge in my opinion.

Despite both men always possessing finishing abilities, I think we see this fight drag out a little bit further. I give the nod to Gamrot ever so slightly, so with this big underdog price, I'm eyeing him to pick up a signature victory.

PICK: Gamrot +240, Gamrot by Decision +500 (0.5U)

Shavkat Rakhmonov (-455) vs. Neil Magny (+340)

While Magny's fights typically go to the scorecards, more than half of his fights have gone to decision, Rakhmonov is set to steamroll him.

He is rightfully a massive favorite and I expect him to finish this fight inside the distance. At 15-0, all of his wins have come by finish (eight KO's, seven submissions). Magny has been durable in the past, but he is facing a rising contender who brings a blend of striking and grappling he has not seen.

It's the favored outcome at -150, but I see value in backing Rakhmonov to get this fight finished quickly.

PICK: Rakhmonov Inside the Distance -150

Thiago Moisés (-250) vs. Christos Giagos (+200)

I like Moisés in this spot to snap his two fight losing streak, but I'm eyeing his decision prop.

He has one win by finish in the UFC, a heel hook against Michael Johnson which is somewhat flukey in the grand scheme of tings, and I give him the grappling and cardio edge. While Giagos is going to push a pace early, we have seen him gas out into the third round.

Moisés may drop the first round if he is taken down early, but I believe he can push this against the cage and slow down Giagos. With limited finishing upside and a near +200 price tag, I like the better fighter to get back on track and clean up an easy victory.

Keep an eye on backing him live after the first round at a better price as well.

PICK: Moises by Decision +200

UFC Fight Night Best Bets

  • JP Buys vs. Cody Durden UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+120)
  • TJ Brown/Alan Baudot (+175)
  • Vanessa Demopoulos ML (+200) 0.5U, ITD (+550) 0.25U

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