UFC Louisville: Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby Prediction, Pick and Odds

In search of his first win since 2019, Dominick Reyes will return to the Octagon at UFC Louisville against former GLORY kickboxer Dustin Jacoby.

Jacoby (19-8-1, 7-5-1 in UFC) has seen his success wane since breaking into the light heavyweight rankings, going just 1-3 in his last four fights. Last competing at UFC 296, Jacoby lost a decision to Alonzo Menifield and has since dropped out of the top 15.

Reyes (12-4, 6-4 in UFC) will make the walk to the Octagon for the first time in 19 months after suffering a violent first-round knockout loss to Ryan Spann at UFC 281. The loss was his fourth consecutive defeat overall and third straight by knockout. Since controversially losing to Jon Jones in 2020, Reyes has still yet to find his way back into the win column.

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Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby Odds and Round Total

Moneyline

• Reyes: +186
• Jacoby: -245

Total: 2.5 (Over +135/Under -160)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Dominick Reyes vs. Dustin Jacoby Best Bet

On the heels of four straight losses, the best version of Reyes would be more than capable of competing with Jacoby but there is little to no reason to beleive that will happen. After three straight knockout losses, Reyes' durability has to be questioned as he got put out cold by what was essentially a jab from Ryan Spann in his last outing.

When Reyes is on his game, he has shown to be one of the most athletic and powerful fighters in the division. Before losing to Jon Jones, he finished nine of his 12 fights (75 percent) before the final horn. However, he has since also lost three of his last four (75 percent) by knockout in round one or two.

Though slightly less aggressive, Jacoby has shown a similar fight style, winning 12 fights by knockout and 13 of his 19 career wins (68 percent) inside the distance. He has been more durable defensively than Reyes but has still lost three fights by knockout or submission.

Most concerning for Reyes is his overall health, as the former title challenger just announced in late March that he was fully recovered from what he called a life-threatening blood clot. That would make less than two months for him to be fully healthy entering UFC Louisville.

In the best-case scenario for Reyes, he returns to his form of old, the version that saw him win four of his first six (67 percent) UFC fights inside the distance. But in the worst case, this is a fighter desperate to find himself after a long streak of misfortune who will be competing at less than 100 percent. Either way, this fight will likely not be reaching the third round.

Prediction: Jacoby by KO/TKO in round two

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-160)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.