UFC Mexico City: four-leg parlay for the prelims

The UFC will be returning to Mexico City for the first time since 2019 and we will be once again looking to capitalize.

In the 13-fight card, seven will make up the preliminary portion, which is where we will look to build a four-leg parlay before the action accelerates in the main card.

Preview my entire list of picks for UFC Mexico and the PFL vs. Bellator fight cards here.

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UFC Mexico City four-leg parlay (+375)

• Muhammad Naimov ML
• Claudio Puelles +3.5
• Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda da Silva under 2.5
• Jesus Aguilar vs. Matues Mendonca under 2.5

Muhammad Naimov ML (-350)

Weird outcomes have become normal in the UFC but Naimov losing to Erik Silva after consecutive wins over Nathaniel Wood and Jamie Mullarkey would stick out.

After dominating former GLORY kickboxer Anvar Boynazarov on DWCS, Silva was expected to put on a show in his debut fight with TJ Brown but fell flat on his face, relenting over nine minutes of control time as the better grappler on paper. Brown has since been released by the UFC and Naimov has even better grappling skills as a BJJ black belt.

As a primary grappler, Silva offers almost nothing in his striking, averaging just 2.17 significant strikes per minute with zero career knockdowns. In both of Naimov's career losses, he has gotten out-landed by his opponent, a trend that Silva does not appear capable of doing.

While Naimov has given up a lot of takedowns so far in the UFC, he has only been controlled for a total of roughly eight minutes through his three bouts, including the one DWCS loss to Collin Anglin in 2020.

Claudio Puelles +3.5

While I absolutely love the money line price on Puelles, the best bet on his bout with Fares Ziam is the point spread. Fans were quick to dismiss Puelles for his letdown performance against Dan Hooker, seemingly forgetting how dominant he had been in four fights before facing the top 15 contender.

Puelles is significantly limited in his offensive approach but is excellent at forcing opponents to "fight his fight" and has managed to initiate grappling exchanges in every bout despite his poor wrestling ability. Having struggled with power and superior strikers for most of his career, Ziam, who has zero knockdowns in the UFC while averaging just 2.82 significant strikes per minute, is the perfect bounce-back opponent for Puelles.

Ziam holds a significant win over Jamie Mullarkey but has not won by knockout since 2018. In his three losses to date, Puelles has been knocked out twice.

In Ziam's four career losses, three have been by submission (75 percent) while Puelles has seven of his twelve wins (58 percent) of that method.

Chairez/Lacerda da Silva under 2.5

Like most people, Daniel Lacerda hates doing cardio and has the stamina to last just one round which is not ideal for a fight in elevation. To his credit, Lacerda acknowledges this weakness and comes out firing from the opening, never looking to see a decision.

While Lacerda's fight style has not been beneficial for his career thus far — 0-4 in the UFC — it screams at the under. This fight is also a rematch with the first meeting practically ending in the first round with a Chairez submission before a referee blunder resulted in a no-contest.

Lacerda has an impressive offensive skill set and nearly finished CJ Vergara and Victor Altamirano in two of his UFC losses but lacks all defensive fundamentals. Since 2021, Lacerda has recorded historically poor defensive stats with 34% striking defense and absorbing an average of 8.7 significant strikes per minute.

Chairez has also not seen a decision win in his career with six of his ten victories by submission and four by knockout. In a fight with two men boasting a 100% finish rate in elevation, the first round will likely be the only round of the contest.

Aguilar/Mendonca under 2.5

couldJesus Aguilar has not received enough credit from fans as an action fighter but ould change his entire narrative on Feb. 24. In his 11-fight career, Aguilar has gone to a decision just twice while finishing four of his nine wins in the first round.

Mendonca, though seeing more decisions in his career, has still finished 60 percent of his total victories while displaying a lack of defensive responsibility through two UFC fights. In three octagon bouts, Mendonca has a recorded 26% striking defense while absorbing 6.25 significant strikes per minute.

As a strong grappler, Aguilar has racked up most of his wins (66 percent) by submission but did viciously knock out Shannon Ross in his last outing to prove his power on the feet. Mendonca has not been submitted in his career as a grappler himself, but the power of Aguilar could entirely alter the direction of the fight with the wide-open guard Mendonca presents.

Mendonca should also find success in ground exchanges with Aguilar, who is a sufficient offensive grappler but lacks defensive mechanisms with both of his losses by submission.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.