UFC Mexico City: Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan Prediction, Pick and Odds

Expect Manuel Torres to capitalize on a prime opportunity to extend his knockout streak to four.

Jul 22, 2023; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Chris Duncan (red gloves) fights Yanal Ashmouz (blue gloves)
Jul 22, 2023; London, UNITED KINGDOM; Chris Duncan (red gloves) fights Yanal Ashmouz (blue gloves) / Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Kicking off a five-fight main card in Mexico City, Manuel Torres and Chris Duncan will get the crowd going in a violent affair.

After opening as one of the closer-lined fights, Torres has grown to -200 as the favorite with Duncan now priced at +150 as the underdog. Both fighters are 2-0 in the UFC lightweight division after earning contracts on season five of Dana White's Contender Series.

Fighting out of Delincuentes MMA in Mexico, Torres will be the fan favorite with the crowd behind him as one of the 11 native Mexicans on the card.

Before breaking down the main card opening fight, take a look at the best bets of the prelims and the full betting picks of UFC Mexico City here.

Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan odds and round total


  • Torres: -192
  • Duncan: +160

Total Rounds

  • 1.5 (Over +160/Under -210)

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Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan best bet

Upon entering the UFC, Torres has repeatedly stated his mission to knock every opponent out and has done so to this point. Since 2018, Torres has not seen a second round and has received a Performance of the Night bonus in both of his UFC bouts.

Duncan has notoriously been a tough fighter to finish and owns arguably the best moment in DWCS history with his comeback knockout win over Charlie Campbell in 2022. However, the one loss in his career at press time was a vicious left hook from Viacheslav Borschev in 2021 who has been to this point the only fighter to truly exploit the lack of defense Duncan possesses.

Statistically, Duncan is not awful in the UFC with 49% striking defense and averaging just 3.74 significant strikes per minute. But in his two official UFC fights to date, Duncan executed a primarily wrestling game plan against 37-year-old Omar Morales and Yanal Ashmouz who reportedly broke his hand early in the bout. Since losing to Borshchev, Duncan has fought extremely conservatively and cautiously against less aggressive strikers but has not tightened up his defense.

The last fighter Duncan faced who brought pressure and attempted to penetrate his guard was Campbell, who nearly finished him almost immediately. Torres will be in his face from the opening minute and Duncan could pull off a similar knockout but the power of Torres will be the most he has faced since Borshchev. Torres' cardio may be worth keeping an eye on should Duncan survive but to this point, the Mexican is averaging an incredible 9.6 significant strikes per minute.

Prediction: Manuel Torres by KO in round two

Best bet: Torres by KO/TKO (+120)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.