UFC St. Louis: Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction, Pick and Odds

In the UFC's return to St. Louis for the first time in six years, heavyweight fan favorite Derrick Lewis will headline the Fight Night card against rising Brazilian prospect Rodrigo Nascimento.

Lewis (27-12, 18-10 in UFC) has struggled to find consistent success in the Octagon since 2021, winning just two of his last seven fights. Lewis last captivated the audience with another knockout win at UFC 291 against Marcos Rogerio de Lima but has since picked up another loss in the main event of UFC São Paulo against Jailton Almeida.

Nascimento (11-1 with one no-contest, 4-1 with one no-contest in UFC) debuted in the heavyweight rankings in late 2023 and has since picked up a second win over Don'Tale Mayes at UFC São Paulo. Overall, Nascimento is officially on a three-fight win streak with the lone loss of his career coming against Chris Daukaus at UFC Fight Island 5.

Despite being 39, Lewis has claimed to feel as if he is only now entering his athletic prime. Although his 3-5 record in the last three years appears bleak on paper, the Houston native has only lost to opponents currently ranked in the top 10.

Nascimento has only lost once in his career thus far but is facing a ranked opponent for the first time in his 14th professional fight.

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Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Odds and Round Total

Moneyline

• Rodrigo Nascimento: +136
• Derrick Lewis: -155

Total: 1.5 (Over +108/Under -136)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction and Pick

Much to his chagrin, the UFC loves putting Derrick Lewis in main event fights — especially in front of a crowd — and more often than not he delivers with a knockout to end the night. UFC St. Louis should be no different with Lewis being 5-0 against fighters ranked outside of the top 10 in the last five years.

In the late stages of Lewis' career, his primary difficulties have been against wrestlers or elite-level fighters. Nascimento is not elite but is a BJJ black belt and has a reputation for using his size as a wrestler.

Nascimento has been able to control all but one of his opponents for at least a singular moment, but overall, he completes just 33 percent of his takedowns. In his last fight with Don'Tale Mayes, Nascimento was 0/3 on takedown attempts with just 2:33 of control time.

In his entire UFC career, the Brazilian was truly only able to hold down Tanner Boser, who has since dropped down to light heavyweight. Nascimento is not an elite wrestler but relies heavily on his submission game, winning 55 percent of his fights on the ground. Lewis has been submitted just once in 13 years as a fighter by Serghei Spivac in a fight he admitted he entered compromised.

Throughout fight week, Nascimento is pushing the narrative that he can knock Lewis out and is just as proficient on the feet as the UFC all-time knockout leader. That gameplan seldom worked out for Lewis' previous opponents and Nascimento, who has zero knockdowns through seven UFC appearances, will not be the next man to take him out.

When it comes to Lewis, Vegas knows people will immediately look for the knockout price. The line has been slightly juiced up but Lewis has won 82 percent of his fights by knockout and has never won a five-round decision. I will stick to the money line as the method of victory prop does not provide enough additional value for my liking.

Prediction: Lewis by KO/TKO in Round 1

Best Bet: Derrick Lewis (-155)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.