UFC St. Louis: Jake Hadley vs. Charles Johnson Prediction, Pick and Odds (Value on the Local Fighter)

UFC St. Louis would not be right without "The Pride of St. Louis" on the card, a moniker that Charles Johnson has given himself. As such, Johnson will compete on the prelims against Jake Hadley.

Johnson (14-6, 3-4 in UFC) has struggled thus far in the UFC but regained a lot of momentum in his last outing, a huge upset win over Azat Maksum. The win likely extended Johnson's tenure with the promotion as it ended a three-fight losing streak for the 33-year-old.

Hadley (10-2, 2-2 in UFC) entered the UFC as an undefeated prospect but has fallen short of expectations to this point. Hadley has split his two career losses with back-to-back first-round finishes over Carlos Candelario and Malcolm Gordon but is coming off a loss to Cody Durden at UFC Nashville.

For the fifth time in five UFC outings, Hadley will enter the fight as the betting favorite but Johnson will fight with the home crowd behind him.

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Jake Hadley vs. Charles Johnson odds and round total

Jake Hadley vs. Charles Johnson best bet

Johnson may not have been very good so far in the UFC but he has won the three fights against opponents who could not take him down or control him. When he gets taken down three or more times, Johnson is 0-4 in the UFC but is 3-0 when he has been taken down two times or less.

Hadley, despite being a high-level grappler, has not shown the best fight IQ thus far and has struggled with his wrestling. Hadley has completed just 25 percent of his takedown attempts and largely seems content to strike until his opponent initiates grappling exchanges, even when he has the BJJ edge. Johnson, a former boxer who has just three combined takedowns in seven fights, is not the type of fighter to initiate wrestling.

Even when Johnson faces heavy wrestlers, his takedown defense has largely held up, successfully defending 63 percent of shots attempted on him. His problems arise when he comes head-to-head with cardio wrestlers, which is not Hadley's strength.

On the feet, Hadley is more than capable of finding a knockout finish but struggles when he has to kickbox for extended periods and cannot land takedowns. Johnson averages 8.8 more significant strikes per 15 minutes than Hadley.

When Hadley cannot find a finish, he also struggles. The Englishman has just two decision wins on his record and the two fights of his that reached the scorecards in the UFC resulted in a loss. Through 20 professional fights, Johnson has never been finished suggesting Hadley will have to out-point him on the cards to win a decision if he wishes to get his hand raised.

The talent of Hadley has always been there, but he just has not been able to put it together just yet. This is a fight that figures to live primarily on the feet and Johnson is the better striker. The odds are tremendous for the hometown fighter in front of an electric crowd.

Prediction and best bet: Charles Johnson by decision (+225)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.