UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green Prediction, Odds, Best Bets

Jul 28, 2018; Calgary, Alberta, Canada; Islam Makhachev (blue gloves) defeats Kajan Johnson (red
Jul 28, 2018; Calgary, Alberta, Canada; Islam Makhachev (blue gloves) defeats Kajan Johnson (red / Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

UFC Vegas 49: Makhachev vs. Green presents us with a short notice main event, but does give us the opportunity to see one of the rising stars in the octagon, Islam Makhachev attempt to further his ascent up the lightweight rankings.

Makhachev will fight fan favorite Bobby Green on Saturday night as one of the largest betting favorites in recent memory. Green steps in on short notice, but is coming off a win earlier this month and will look to score the biggest win of his career.

There's that Lightweight main event and 10 other fights that get us ready for UFC 272 next weekend. With that being said, here's my four favorite bets for Saturday's card.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

2022 Best Bets Record: 8-5 (+5.45 Units)

Main Event: Islam Makhachev (-825) vs. Bobby Green (+560)

No, I'm not saying Bobby Green has much of a chance in this fight. Makhachev is the far superior grappler and should have little issue touching up Green in the stand up. Despite moving very well in the cage, Green lacks the finishing power to really put the hurt on Makhachev over the course of the fight.

With that being said, I think Green is going to do what he typically does: grind fights out. 'King' has been finished in just 4 of his 12 losses and I believe we are in for a bit of a grind come Saturday night.

I do like Makhachev by decision at +333 quite a bit, but my favorite bet is on the total of 2.5 (+100). I believe Green is going to try and slow this fight down and get to the final bell as soon as possible. While Makhachev will eventually get this down to the ground and likely find a finish sooner or later, I think we see some sort of easing period into the fight.

Makhachev has finished his last three fights, but two of them came in the third round or later and the two prior to that went to the cards. While he can win this fight however he wants, I think it will take a little bit.

PICK: OVER 2.5 Rounds (+100)

Ramona Pascual (+175) vs. Josiane Nunes (-215)

As discussed on Jab, Cross, Hook on Wednesday night, my No. 1 pick!

There's cause for concern with Pascual, who is making her UFC debut, but this price is too good to pass up.

Her opponent, Josiane Nunes, finished Bea Malecki in her first fight at Bantamweight despite giving up several inches and size in reach. She packs a ton of power in her 5'2" frame and had no issue ending the scrap in the first five minutes.

Pascual presents a similar size difference to Nunes, who is now moving up to Featherweight for this fight and has moved from a slight underdog in her first fight to a massive favorite. I typically like to fade someone shifting this far in the opposite direction of their prior fight.

The crux of my handicap lies in the fact that Nunes may not have the same power advantage at Featherweight as she did at Bantamweight, so then what happens?

I'm hoping that Pascual weathers the early storm from Nunes and the favorite gasses out, opening an opportunity for Pascual to take this fight and close the bout looking like the favorite.

I'll take a shot here on the underdog.

PICK: Pascual (+175)

Priscilla Cachoeira (+135) vs. Ji Yeon Kim (-160)

Another WMMA underdog I'm playing is Cachoeira. This is more of a fade on Ji Yeon Kim, who hasn't won a UFC fight since 2019.

Kim does have a significant reach advantage, seven inches, despite both fighters standing 5'7", but Cachoeira has the decisive knockout power to take this fight. She has won two of her last three fights dating back to 2020, two of which were by KO as an underdog. The Brazilian lost her last fight to Gillian Robertson by submission, but Kim won't challenge for positions like that.

I would never back Kim as a favorite, and Cachoeira presents enough KO upside to play the underdog price.

PICK: Cachoiera (+135)

Parlay: Wellington Turman/Jonathan Martinez

I previewed the Turman vs. Cirkunov fight here with an assist from FanSided MMA Editor Amy Kaplan, who provided invaluable insight into that fight. Make sure to check that out.

I'll look to pair Turman, who is +100 at WynnBET, with my favorite chalk play on the board in Jonathan Martinez, who sits at -245.

Martinez has two inches of height and three inches of reach while also standing as a southpaw. 'Dragon' is the busier striker and should have his opponent Alejandro Perez covered all over. Perez likely will try to trade at range with Martinez and he will have no issue touching him up throughout the duration of the fight.

After taking more than two years off, Perez was given an easy opponent back in October that he finished in the second round. Martinez may not be elite, but he is a step up and class and the rightful chalk.

I'm not interested in laying -245 on a fighter, so I'll bump on my payout on Turman.

PICK: Turman/Martinez +182

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!