UFC Vegas 86: Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili Prediction, Pick and Odds

Featured in another co-main event of a UFC APEX card, Dan Ige takes on short-notice replacement Andre Fili at UFC Vegas 86.

Making his 17th walk to the octagon, the no. 13 ranked Ige will welcome Fili to the rankings, who comes in on roughly two week's notice to replace Lerone Murphy. Fili will also make a quick turnaround after knocking out Lucas Almeida at UFC 296, cashing a -170 ticket for us.

Though we laid the price with Fili in his last outing and were rewarded with the result, this matchup with Ige is less favorable for the Team Alpha Male featherweight. Instead, it will be Ige closing as the favorite with the price rightfully climbing in his favor.

Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili odds, total

Ige: -175
Fili: +145

Over 2.5 rounds: -200
Under 2.5 rounds: +154

Dan Ige vs. Andre Fili best bet

Dan Ige -3.5 (+105)

While the play I initially liked most upon breaking down this matchup was Ige by knockout, the point spread is too juicy to pass up at plus money.

Throughout both of their lengthy and respected UFC careers, it has been no secret who either of these fighters are. Both of these strikers are high-level gatekeepers, with Ige being just one level above Fili. Their fight styles are remarkably similar as well, favoring their power and defense.

With their similarities, both of their histories point towards Ige. Since entering the rankings in 2020, Ige has not lost to an unranked opponent, going 4-0 against such opposition. In that same span, Ige has only lost to the premier title contenders of the division who have all displayed elite wrestling to notch a victory.

Fili, meanwhile, has not beaten a ranked featherweight in his entire UFC career. Though this is just his second fight against an opponent in the top 15, Fili is 0-5 against fighters currently in the featherweight rankings. As mentioned in the lead-up to his matchup with Almeida, Fili feasts on the lower-level featherweights but loses in spotlight opportunities such as this one.

While the book on both Hawaiians has been their durability, Fili has shown cracks in his armor in recent years, now being 33 years old and making his 22nd octagon appearance. In his last two losses, Fili has been dropped in both contests, including a 41-second TKO loss to Joanderson Brito.

In similar matchups with opponents who look to strike with him, Ige has recorded a knockdown in each of his last three wins with two resulting in a knockout. Flying high after a flawless performance against Almeida, Fili will look to trade with Ige, a game plan that has not worked well for him against other power punchers.

Over 15 minutes, I still love Ige to find Fili's chin and get a knockout, and will still take a half-unit shot at that line. But the 3.5-point spread provides too much extra value to pass up on for Ige who has covered that line in seven of his nine UFC wins.

Prediction: Dan Ige by knockout in round two

Best Bet: Dan Ige -3.5

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change