UFC Vegas 86: Daniel Marcos vs. Aori Qileng Prediction, Pick and Odds

The best hidden gem of UFC Vegas 86 will be with the first fight of the night


For the second time in his third UFC appearance, undefeated prospect Daniel Marcos will begin the night as the first fight of the preliminary card.

At 15-0, Marcos will look to improve to 3-0 in the octagon against the veteran Aori Qileng, who makes his seventh walk to the octagon on Feb. 10. Marcos last defeated Davey Grant by split decision at UFC London while Aori last picked up a win over Johnny Muñoz Jr. at UFC Vegas 80.

While some people may overlook the first fight of the night, this prop is my favorite of the card. Let's jump on it before the line moves!

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Daniel Marcos vs. Aori Qileng odds and total

Marcos (15-0): -280
Aoriqileng (25-10): +225

Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150

Daniel Marcos vs. Aori Qileng best bet

Daniel Marcos by decision (+110)

Marcos is set up to pick up a win in this spot and though I am not very high on his potential I do not believe this is the spot to fade him. Aori is just 3-3 in the UFC with very low quality of competition at bantamweight, providing a significant argument that Marcos is his toughest opponent to date.

Though Marcos has yet to receive a loss, he has not been the finishing machine on the regional scene that many young prospects are. Of his 15 career wins, eight have been by knockout with seven by decision and zero submissions.

Not only is Marcos not the greatest finisher, but Aori has proven high-level durability to this point. His last loss was a violent knockout from Aiemann Zahabi but that loss was the Mongolian's first defeat of that method. Seven out of ten of Aori's career losses have been by decision and as we previously mentioned, Marcos has never submitted an opponent.

In their careers, 47% of Marcos' wins have been by decision while 70% of Aori's losses have reached the scorecards. Before losing to Zahabi, Aori had not been finished since 2017.

Marcos is unsurprisingly the large favorite with the round total also leaning toward the over. Vegas is clearly on the side of Marcos and the fight going the distance, yet somehow the price of his decision prop remains favorable. Take advantage of this line.

Prediction: Daniel Marcos by decision

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change