UFC Vegas 87: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Prediction, Pick and Odds

Shamil Gaziev hit the ground running at UFC 296 with a dominant performance and now gets a chance to enter the heavyweight rankings in just his second promotional bout against divisional veteran Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

With a significant experience edge in the matchup, Rozenstruik owns a 7-4 record in the UFC while facing three former champions. Now 13-5 overall, Rozenstruik entered the UFC as a 6-0 prospect after finishing his kickboxing career at 76-8-1.

Gaziev, 12-0, earned his contract on season seven of Dana White's Contender Series despite having less than four years of experience as a professional fighter. Already a budding prospect with blistering power and pressure, Gaziev began his MMA career in 2020 after spending several years as a pupil of the credentialed Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov following a brief stint in volleyball.

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev odds and round total

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev best bet

It would not be shocking at all to see Gaziev roll through Rozenstruik but this all feels like too much too soon. Gaziev surely has the Dagestani edge we've seen proven valuable in MMA but as we previously mentioned, Gaziev is not even four years into his career as a professional already facing a lifelong fighter who has only lost to top five-level fighters.

Rozenstruik's criticism has largely surrounded his lack of volume and activity — averaging just 2.81 significant strikes per minute — and wrestling defense. In five career losses, Rozenstruik has either lost to fighters who extend the fight to out-point him, such as Ciryl Gane and Curtis Blaydes, or steamrolled by elite finishers. Gaziev certainly has finishing instincts but has not shown one-hit power against top-level talent.

Against fighters not currently in the top 10 of the UFC heavyweight rankings, Rozenstruik is 7-0 in the octagon.

In fights that end quickly, Rozenstruik has tended to come out on top. In 13 professional wins, Rozenstruik has knocked down all but one opponent with 12 by knockout including nine in round one. Gaziev has not shown an ability to pace himself with just one win by decision — a split decision at that — and all but two of his fights ending before the 1.5-round mark.

Rozenstruik has been finished three times but only to the power of Francis Ngannou, the precision of Alexander Volkov, and the pressure grappling of Jailton Almeida. Gaziev does not have any of those three elite skills.

Gaziev will come out as hot as he always does but Rozenstruik has shown enough durability to survive an early onslaught. The longer the fight goes, the more of an advantage Rozenstruik will have before finding a big shot against a gassed-out Gaziev.

Prediction: Rozenstruik by knockout in round two

Best Bet: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO (+170)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.