UFC Vegas 88: Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena Prediction, Pick and Odds

Two action-packed UFC veterans clash in the main card opener of UFC Vegas 88 as Gerald Meerschaert and Bryan Barberena will meet in the octagon as the only two middleweights on the event.

While struggling with age and declining athleticism towards the end of his career, Meerschaert (35-17, 10-9 in UFC) has dropped two in a row entering his 53rd professional fight. Now 1-3 in his last four, Meerschaert has not won since a 2022 submission of Bruno Silva.

Barberena (18-11, 9-9 in UFC) will be competing at middleweight for the second straight fight after spending the first 28 bouts of his career at welterweight. Also on a losing streak, Barberena's current three-fight skid includes two submission losses and a decision loss to Makhmud Muradov at UFC London.

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Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena Odds

Gerald Meerschaert vs. Bryan Barberena Prediction and Pick

Throughout his lengthy career, Meerschaert has primarily struggled with opponents who held significant physical advantages over him. Luckily, Barberena will not be that guy as a career welterweight who also struggled with the same issues at a lower weight class.

If the fight remains on the feet, Barberena will be the better striker. He lands over two more significant strikes per minute than Meerschaert, throwing at a much higher volume. But in his career — and magnified more in recent years — the ever-loving brawler has seldom been able to defend takedowns, a bad statistic to have against a guy like Meerschaert who has won 27 of his 35 professional wins (77 percent) by submission.

Meerschaert is not a great wrestler but the size advantage he will have over Barberena will be significant. Barberena is not a middleweight and looked the part in his divisional debut against Makhmud Muradov, getting taken down 13 times.

Once the fight hits the canvas, Meerschaert averages nearly one submission attempt per takedown landed. In 19 career octagon appearances, Meerschaert has attempted 1.5 submissions per 15 minutes while Barberena has been submitted twice in his last three fights and has given up 10 total submission attempts in the UFC.

Since signing with the UFC in 2016, Meerschaert is 8-1 when attempting at least one submission attempt. All of those wins were by submission.

Prediction: Meerschaert by submission in round two

Best bet: Gerald Meerschaert by submission (+125)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.