UFC Vegas 88: Jafel Filho vs. Ode' Osbourne Prediction, Pick and Odds

Back the flyweight veteran to continue his 5-0 career trend

Aug 13, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Ode Osbourne (red gloves) fights against Tyson Nam (not
Aug 13, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; Ode Osbourne (red gloves) fights against Tyson Nam (not / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Unranked flyweights Jafel Filho and Ode' Osbourne clash on the prelims of UFC Vegas 88 in a fight that is all but guaranteed to be explosive from start to finish.

After nearly catapulting himself into the UFC rankings in his debut by almost submitting Muhammad Mokaev, Filho (15-3, 1-1 in UFC) will be the favorite in this matchup, fresh off a first-round submission of Daniel Barez. Now owning an even record in the world's largest MMA organization, Filho will look to build momentum against a veteran of the flyweight division.

Entering as an underdog for the fifth time in the UFC, Osbourne (12-6, 1 NC, 4-4 in UFC) is just 1-3 as an underdog in the octagon. Osbourne enters March 16 on the heels of a submission loss to Assu Almabayev at UFC Nashville.

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Jafel Filho vs. Ode' Osbourne odds and round total

Jafel Filho vs. Ode' Osbourne best bet

Osbourne does not have the best record in the UFC but since moving down to flyweight in 2021 has only lost to some of the best the division has to offer. In three losses at 125 pounds, Osbourne has lost to Manel Kape, Tyson Nam and Assu Almabayev, all top 15 level opponents.

If Filho can get a takedown and establish control there is a high likelihood that he can find a submission given that three of six (50 percent) losses for Osbourne were of that method, including his last outing. Filho has won a 60 percent majority of his fights by submission, including his last win over Daniel Barez in the first round.

However, for as successful of a grappler Filho is, he struggles immensely to take the fight to the mat with just a 27 percent takedown accuracy in the octagon. Contrarily, Osbourne boasts an impressive 68 percent takedown defense and has only been outstruck at distance once in the UFC.

Should Osbourne be able to keep the fight standing, he will have a sizeable five-inch reach advantage with surprising power given his frame, a tool he has used successfully so far. In the two striking battles he lost in the UFC, Osbourne was knocked out by Kape and Nam but Filho has just two standing knockouts in his career.

In his last fight with Barez, Filho struggled in striking exchanges, getting dropped and nearly finished on multiple occasions. The fight was one-way traffic on the ground but Osbourne should have enough grappling ability to defend Filho's wild submission attempts and manage distance on the feet.

In his 19-fight career, Osbourne has never lost two consecutive fights, currently 5-0 coming off a loss.

Prediction: Osbourne by decision

Best bet: Ode' Osbourne ML (+150)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.