UFC Vegas 88: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura Prediction, Pick and Odds

The unanimously beloved Tai Tuivasa returns to the octagon on March 16, this time against the no. 10 ranked Marcin Tybura.

Tuivasa (14-6, 5-6 in UFC) is in the midst of another rough patch in his career, suffering the second three-fight losing streak in the UFC. After rising to as high as no. 3 in the division, Tuivasa has now lost to three of the best strikers at heavyweight, most recently being submitted by Alexander Volkov at UFC 293.

Tybura (24-8, 11-7 in UFC) enters the matchup also looking to rebound, having lost by first-round knockout to now-interim champion Tom Aspinall in his most recent outing. Previously, Tybura had won two straight and seven of his last eight to give himself a top 10 ranking.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, 80 percent of its users have placed their money on Tuivasa, though the money line odds have not budged and remain near-even on both sides.

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Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura odds and round total

Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura best bet

The money being almost entirely coming in on Tuivasa's side is worrisome, but this is still a great matchup for Tuivasa and one that should give him a bounce-back win.

Tuivasa has routinely struggled with wrestling and grappling defense and while Tybura could generate the top pressure needed to give him fits, the Russian has succeeded on just 33 percent of his takedown attempts through 18 UFC fights. For as many problems as Tuivasa has in such exchanges, he does own a respectable 54 percent takedown defense, suggesting he has the tools to keep the fight upright.

When striking, the power advantage will be clear for Tuivasa. When he has recorded a knockdown in the UFC, Tuivasa is 7-1 with each of the wins by knockout. Likewise, he is also 0-5 when knocked down himself. In the UFC, Tybura has recorded just one knockdown and one knockout win.

Against opponents with significant power, Tybura's durability has tended to melt with previous knockout losses to Tom Aspinall, Augusto Sakai, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Derrick Lewis. Five of eight (62.5 percent) career losses for Tybura have been by knockout, boding well for Tuivasa, who has won 13 of his 14 (93 percent) professional victories by knockout.

Tybura has shown an ability to weather a storm in the past but the power of Tuivasa will be different. Ciryl Gane — who has spent time in the octagon with Francis Ngannou, Lewis, and Tuivasa — has praised 'Bam Bam' as the hardest puncher he has faced as the only fighter to knock him down to date.

For what it is worth, this is the second fight Tuivasa will enter on the heels of a three-fight skid in the UFC, with the last occasion resulting in a first-round knockout win.

Prediction: Tuivasa by knockout in round three

Best bet: Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO (+105)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.