UFC Vegas 89: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden Prediction, Pick and Odds

Seven months since becoming the 31st Ultimate Fighter to fight his way back into the UFC, Kurt Holobaugh will look to extend his current win streak to four against Trey Ogden at UFC Vegas 89.

Holobaugh (20-7, 1-4 in UFC) surprised many last fall by becoming the lightweight winner of TUF 31 at 37 despite being the lowest-ranked fighter on Team Chandler. While not finding much success in the UFC before submitting Austin Hubbard in the TUF 31 season finale, Holobaugh has never lost a fight in a non-Zuffa promotion and enters the matchup having finished each of his last four opponents including his exhibition fight with Jason Knight.

Ogden (16-6, 1-2, 1 NC in UFC) has had an awkward run in the UFC since signing in 2022, last appearing in a no-contest with Nikolas Motta at UFC Vegas 82 despite controlling most of the action. Entering what may be the final fight of his current contract, Ogden profiles as the favorite despite being just 2-2 in the last four years.

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Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden odds and round total

Kurt Holobaugh vs. Trey Ogden best bet

If it had not been for the puzzling debut of Daniel Zellhuber, Ogden would likely no longer be employed by the UFC. However, Ogden is coming off his best performance to date against Nikolas Motta even if the fight did end with a no-contest.

Ogden is the definition of a grappling specialist with 11 of his 16 wins (69 percent) by submission. But in four UFC fights, Ogden has landed takedowns at just a 16 percent clip while accumulating just over six minutes of total control time.

As a high-level BJJ black belt, Holobaugh has only been thoroughly out-grappled four times in his career, all by fighters with better wrestling than Ogden. Through seven appearances under the Zuffa banner, Holobaugh boasts a respectable 50 percent takedown defense while remaining aggressive in his offensive attacks, averaging 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

In 28 professional fights, Holobaugh has been submitted just once by Thiago Moises in 2019. In fights where Ogden cannot find a submission, he is just 5-6 with just one win since 2020.

To this point, Holobaugh has been known in the UFC as a brawler but has won a majority of his fights by submission (50 percent) and showed off slick transition ability in his last win over Austin Hubbard. In striking exchanges, Holobaugh will have every advantage, particularly with his speed and pressure, two factors Ogden does not handle well.

Prediction: Holobaugh by KO/TKO in round three

Best bet: Kurt Holobaugh money line (+135)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.